The Tribune

DESPITE the normal festivities surrounding Christmas, my wife and I found there was more time this year for reflection since I was house-bound while recovering from hip replacement surgery. So I was particularly grateful to a good friend for his kind gift of an interesting book entitled ‘The March of Folly’ by American Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and author, Barbara Tuchman. In her heyday in the 1960s she was well known as one of America’s foremost popular historians for she had an engaging style and succeeded in making the past interesting to millions of readers.

First published in 1984, the theme of this book is that throughout history governments have tended to pursue policies contrary to their self-interest. Counter-intuitive as that might sound, Tuchman makes the bold contention that it is a phenomenon that is noticeable regardless of place or period. Defining wisdom as an exercise of judgment acting on experience, common sense and available information, she casts doubt on its lack among political leaders and the consequent folly, in so many cases, of their actions.

She contrasts mankind’s incredible advances, inventions and achievements in so many different spheres with the history almost worldwide of mismanagement of international affairs and relations, characterised all too often by tyranny or oppression. She offers examples of this -- from the Trojans taking the ‘Wooden Horse’ within their walls to Spanish King Philip II’s attempt to conquer England by mounting the Spanish Armada and to Britain’s insistence on coercing rather than conciliating its American colonies. She speaks of Germany’s twice-attempted rule of Europe by what she terms a self-conceived master race and of Japan’s bid for an Empire in Asia in the run-up to the Second World War – and now Russia’s failed invasion of Ukraine is yet another case of a leader acting against the best interests of his own country.

Tuchman puts all this down to the ‘wooden-headedness’ of political leaders that is the principal source of self-deception and of their reluctance to take account of experience and learn from it instead of acting within the confines of preconceived fixed notions. Other specific examples include what now seem to be obvious mistakes by the statesmen of the time who negotiated the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 at the end of the First World War. Some say that the harsh terms of this treaty led inevitably to a second global conflagration barely twenty years later. Earlier, there had been Germany’s decision to resume unrestricted submarine warfare in 1916 which hastened the US’s entry into the First World War the following year; and - most obvious of all even at the time -- the foolhardiness, in terms of their own interests, of the Japanese surprise attack on the US fleet at Pearl Harbor in December, 1941. This was immediately condemned by President Roosevelt in his ‘Day of Infamy’ speech followed by America’s declaration of war, after which there could only be one ultimate consequence; namely, defeat for Japan once the American giant was awakened even though its surrender took another four years to achieve.

The author reserves her fiercest criticism for the folly of US policy in Vietnam from the end of the Second World War in 1945 to America’s forced withdrawal in 1973, calling it persistence in a policy demonstrably unworkable and counter-productive. She devotes more than one hundred pages to a section entitled ‘America betrays herself in Vietnam’, and she describes what she calls the basic flaw of the ‘missionary compulsion’ to guide the Vietnamese toward US policy objectives rather than toward their own. Furthermore, withdrawal was not even contemplated because of the so-called domino theory and fear of encouraging Communism in the region together with the damage to US prestige.

But the major folly was the American illusion of omnipotence. The presumption by policy-makers that its will could be made to prevail was based on the sense of competence and strength of a superpower deriving from victory in the Second World War. Moreover, there was an evident failure to understand that problems and conflicts exist among other peoples that are not soluble by the application of American force or even its goodwill so that only the inhabitants themselves can make the process of nation-building work.

Although published some 40 years ago, Barbara Tuchman’s ideas are as relevant today as ever. In his Christmas message this year, The Pope said that the world was suffering from a “famine of peace” and he lamented the “icy winds of war”. He called for an immediate end of the “senseless” war in Ukraine and for resolution of humanitarian crises in places like Syria, Myanmar, Iran, Haiti and the Sahel region of Africa while also deploring the fact that the ‘path of peace’ was blocked by social forces that included attachment to power and money, pride, hypocrisy and falsehood.

All that is encapsulated in the current disaster of the war in Ukraine. Given what has happened since the Russian invasion last February, it is baffling to some that President Zelensky’s recent visit to the US asking for further supplies of weaponry and other support should have induced opposition in some quarters in Washington to any idea of an open-ended commitment by NATO and the US itself. So is there a risk of our leaders repeating the mistakes of the 1930s, when, as is now clear to historians, instead of disarmament more could have been done to prevent another world war? This time last year, despite the build-up of Russian armed forces on the border, few thought that Putin would be crazy enough to invade Ukraine. But, since the West did not really react to his intervention in Syria and only limply protested against his annexation of Crimea in 2014 -- while the failure of the US and its allies’ mission in Afghanistan was there for all to see - he was evidently emboldened to do so.

Last week, Putin targeted cities across Ukraine with Russian missiles in one of the largest bombardments since the war began. Moscow is now accused of seeking to destroy critical infrastructure and to kill civilians en masse. There can surely be no doubt that the West has to continue to stand firm in trying to stop this evil and to deter any further Russian expansionism. One can only hope that this time the lessons of the past will be heeded and the leaders of the world’s democracies will provide full and lasting support to a nation prepared to sacrifice lives in defence of its democratic freedoms and independence – in the interests of the free world as a whole.

NEW KING FOLLOWS IN HIS BELOVED MOTHER’S FOOTSTEPS

IT WAS interesting to read a rare press interview over the Christmas holiday with the Speaker of the House of Commons at Westminster, Sir Lindsay Hoyle. He acknowledged the political turmoil last autumn which had been damaging to British democracy and its global reputation and he described the “bizarre” events which saw three Conservative Prime Ministers in the space of as many months, saying that the country was still struggling to recover from this unprecedented upheaval.

This seemed to me a stark reminder of a particularly difficult period for Britain when at the same time the nation was coming to terms with the passing in September of its longest serving and much loved monarch.

In the midst of such political uncertainty, it was all the more important for Britain to have a well ordered and peaceful transition within its constitutional monarchy, and that the immediate accession to the throne of a new monarch as Head of State, King Charles III, should be as smooth as possible in order to maintain national unity and stability.

From all the evidence, it appears that the new King has slipped almost effortlessly into his new role. Early on, he displayed a new human touch of personal warmth and concern by clearly relating well to the crowds gathered at various venues to express their sadness at the passing of The Queen and their support for him. It was also notable that during the period of national mourning before his mother’s funeral he visited the different parts of the United Kingdom to attend ceremonies designed to reinforce the strength of the union.

With his coronation now due to take place in May, an important early test for the King was the monarch’s traditional Christmas Day message. He used this effectively to convey his sense of social awareness, humanity and compassion towards people of all faiths and his empathy with the public who are going through difficult economic times.

A study of the UK press also reveals much public sympathy for him and the new Prince of Wales, in particular, as they maintain a dignified silence in the face of the renewed appalling accusations by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. The senior Royals have steadfastly refused to engage in any public exchanges with the couple and, judging from the photographs over the holiday period, the Royal Family seem happier and more close-knit than ever.

While so many people continue to mourn the late Queen, they will be delighted that the reign of the new King has started so well despite the difficult circumstances.

A new start indeed – and as we face our own new start with the arrival of another January, I wish a happy new year to all.

WHAT WILL 2023 BRING? BBC CORRESPONDENTS LOOK AHEAD

BY COMMON consent, making predictions about what another New Year has in store in other countries is a hazardous business to be avoided if possible unless they are based on a solid knowledge of events in the country concerned.

But, since the BBC’s resident correspondents in different parts of the world are always well informed and knowledgeable about their countries, the corporation attempts such a task each year.

It asks a selection of its correspondents to look into their crystal balls and predict what might be in store during the coming year.

This has included this year its representatives in Africa, North America, China, South Asia and in Russia itself.

The BBC World Service released an hour-long programme for 2023 on December 30 which I found to be well worth listening to and is available for over a year.

This year’s programme is against a backdrop of a world altered by the continuing war in Ukraine that has made other countries more unstable and insecure and with the ramifications of the conflict felt beyond Europe – like spiralling energy and food costs and increased levels of inflation in a market already chaotic after the pandemic -- as Russia has become a pariah state.

It is also against a background of worsening relations between the US and China, widespread and sustained protests in Iran against its theocratic regime without posing any real threat to the status quo, and with results of the mid-term elections in the US turning out surprisingly well for President Biden despite predictions to the contrary. Speculation is growing about whether he will run for president again in 2024 and about the degree of pressure he will face in the meantime from the Republicans after they assume a small majority in the House of Representatives.

As reported by the experienced and well informed BBC correspondent in Moscow, Steve Rosenberg, Putin’s so-called special military operation to force Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit has turned out be nothing short of an utter disaster for him - with international sanctions, massive reverses and heavy losses of personnel and equipment on the battlefield as well as loss of territory and growing domestic opposition following partial mobilisation to replace Russian casualties. There appears to be no way back for Putin who now faces accusations of war crimes, but there is no sign yet of his ending the conflict.

Developments elsewhere include tighter gender restrictions in Afghanistan as the Taliban prevents the education of women under its strict interpretation of Sharia law. The importance of foreign funding for infrastructure appears to have taken centre stage in Africa together with the problems of growing Russian influence in the Sahel region while efforts to restore peace in Ethiopia are being closely watched.

Meanwhile, after excessive lockdowns the ditching of China’s zero- Covid policy – a key issue supported by President Xi Jinping – is a big story there as the accuracy of the numbers affected by coronavirus and of those vaccinated remains uncertain. Tensions between China and the US remain high and the level of engagement seems limited as strategic challenges remain, not least over Taiwan, while there have also been border clashes between China and India.

All this and more is covered by the BBC’s foreign resident correspondents concerned with their deep knowledge of individual countries. For comprehensive, well informed, objective reporting and trustworthy assessments of current developments, the BBC is hard to beat – and I recommend this latest production.