The Tribune

Legendary American entertainer Frank Sinatra famously sang about how nice it was to go travelling but that it was “oh so nice to wander back”. With that in mind, what a pleasure it is to be in harness again today with my weekly column after a short absence while on a visit to England to catch up with family and friends. It is easy to see what he meant. Despite the pleasure of a three-week trip it is good to be home again and back in the old familiar routine.

It was disappointing to have to miss the celebrations for the 50th anniversary of independence but it was heartening to read the warm message of congratulations and support from King Charles even though he was unable personally to attend the celebrations – and I found it interesting to reflect on the iconic photograph of the Governor General and Prime Minister in close conversation with him at a reception at Buckingham Palace after the Coronation. To many, this will have sent a symbolic message of the existing deep relationship between The Bahamas and Britain and augurs well for the future.

Because of the pandemic restrictions my wife and I had been unable to travel to England since 2019. So, for us, the visit this time was significant on a personal basis. In particular, we were conscious of the dictum attributed to Samuel Johnson, the 18th century English writer, essayist, poet, biographer and editor who was often called Dr Johnson. He was famous for his admonition that a man should “keep his friendships in good repair”.

This is as relevant today as it was in his time, though in the modern age, of course, it applies equally to women as it does to family members as well as friends. Ideally, it requires regular contact. On this trip, not only were we able to stay with family and catch up on so much news but also to attend a three-day gathering of a small group of long-term friends from university days. We had sworn eternal allegiance to one another all those years ago and have somehow remained close and kept the bonds of friendship going – people who still empathise with one another, ‘warts and all’. Telephone calls, emails and Zoom meetings are all very well, but Dr Johnson – ignorant as he was of such aids to communication more than two centuries in the future - was indeed surely talking about personal contact. It was also rewarding to be able to listen to the exploits of family members and to those of godchildren and the grandchildren of our hosts who enthusiastically recounted their achievements of the last few years and told us of their hopes and aspirations for the future.

Having been away for so long, it was heartening during an initial three-hour car journey from Heathrow to the home of family in deepest Herefordshire, close to the Welsh border, to see the English countryside looking in such fine shape in high summer. While speeding along on country roads that seemed not to have changed much over the years, we observed the endless abundance of trees and luxuriant foliage together with evidence of the good stewardship of farmland and property in a pleasing rural environment.

Later, our hosts ensured we were kept busy with a tour of the magnificent Aynhoe Park, a 17th century stately private country house and estate in the village of Aynho in Northamptonshire on the edge of the Cotswolds overlooking the Cherwell valley. The estate is set in lovely countryside with views of the rolling green hills of Oxfordshire bathed in summer sunshine.

Next came a visit to a famous 400-year-old Tudor manor house preserved and managed by the National Trust and one evening we attended a choral concert at the church in the local large village of Deddington which boasts pubs, a hotel, shops and a post office together with a quintessential village green at its centre – all of which contribute to high local property prices!

Added to all that, we were taken on a tour of the incomparable Cotswolds that feature fine countryside and farmland with a plethora of pretty villages and attractive houses built with the local warm, light-coloured Cotswold stone. Meanwhile, there were banking matters and other business to deal with, but also time to watch on TV the tennis at Wimbledon and a famous Ashes cricket match between England and Australia.

So, all in all, it was a most enjoyable whirlwind visit which, in the circumstances, could ideally have been longer. But a loyal little dog was biding his time in kennels awaiting our return, and, good as the trip was, I was beginning to think towards the end that Frank Sinatra had indeed got it right – no more travelling, packing and unpacking or airport hassle, and the prospect of sleeping in one’s own bed again had suddenly become most appealing!

UNCERTAINTY IN BRITISH POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

While my wife and I were in the UK these past weeks, it was interesting to discuss with various people the current uncertain local political situation and to study the local press. The general view seems to be that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government remains deeply unpopular and that the electorate has hardly ever been as febrile as it is today.

What dominated the news last week was the three by-elections forced on the government by the resignations of the sitting Tory MPs in each constituency, including former Prime Minister Boris Johnson who was forced out in June as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip after the Partygate affair. These by-elections were a real test for Sunak who has been in office for nine months following last autumn’s chaos over the Conservative Party leadership succession.

Two of the three by-elections resulted in overwhelming defeats for the ruling Conservatives. The Labour Party overturned a massive Tory majority to win the northern seat of Selby and Ainsty while the Liberal Democrats trounced the Tories in Somerton and Frome in southwest England. In both cases, what appeared to be unassailable majorities were destroyed on the back of colossal swings. In suburban Uxbridge, the Conservatives managed to defy expectations by hanging on with a wafer-thin majority after a recount. Labour, who claimed that a win for them in Boris Johnson’s old constituency would have been a humiliating blow for the Tories, suggested that they only won because of the unpopularity of London’s ultra-low emission zone which imposes an extra daily charge on motorists driving older cars into the city.

Many say that there is often a temptation to view by-election results as indicating dramatic change in a country’s political landscape. But political scientists are normally reluctant to read too much into the results of mid-term local elections or by-elections because voters tend to use these to indicate dissatisfaction with a sitting government and to send a message to their political leaders in the comfortable knowledge that their government at the national level will not be toppled.

Moreover, turnout at such elections tends to be low and, in the case of the Tories at Selby many voters simply stayed away. Overall, across the three contests the Tory vote was down by 21 percentage points.

Nonetheless, this time more and more people are saying the government should sit up and listen. The evidence is that voters are concerned about the cost of living, mortgage costs, strikes and record National Health Service waiting lists – and the perception is that the government seems to have few answers to the nation’s problems. Sunak says he is working hard in relation to his five priorities to halve inflation, restore growth, reduce debt, cut hospital waiting lists and stop the immigrant boats crossing the Channel. It is becoming clear, however, that unless his government changes tack the Tories will lose the next general election that is due no later than January, 2025 but is likely to take place in 2024.

His own MPs are urging him to go for a more ‘true-blue agenda’. This means tackling illegal immigration more effectively, bringing in ‘zero-tolerance policing’ against Just Stop Oil protesters, and stopping the headlong net-zero push in relation to climate change that is burdening UK tax payers. It also means being more vocal and courageous in the culture wars and speaking out against extremism while stressing the importance of free speech. But, above all, millions have made it clear they want more emphasis on commonsense in public life.

From what is now being said, the Tories need to win back the trust and confidence of their own supporters. Most importantly, they need to cut taxes. Traditionally, Conservatives have had a reputation for sound economic and financial management. One of their principles has been to allow people, when possible, to keep more of their own money; and now, it is argued, is the time for some bold new tax initiatives. Moreover, now that Brexit is a fait accompli, many believe the government should do more to show the advantages of leaving the EU and to talk up positive developments like the recent announcement of a major investment by the multi-national Tata Group in building an electric car battery plant in the UK.

The future for Prime Minister Sunak is fraught with difficulty. But his Party defied expectations in Uxbridge and many observers consider there is time for him to return to Conservative principles and, with better economic news around the corner, secure victory at the next general election.

The question that remains - WILL UKRAINE JOIN NATO?

During our visit to England described elsewhere on this page it was instructive to be able to follow more closely than usual an international event like the NATO Summit held earlier this month in Vilnius, the capital of the Baltic state of Lithuania.

Despite the ready supply to Ukraine of weapons and military equipment by NATO countries in response to Russia’s invasion in February last year, how its members should respond to the nation’s wish to join the organization presents them with a dilemma – and this was all too evident at the Vilnius meeting.

Since Western countries do not want to provoke Russia into a wider war, some of them are reluctant to see Ukraine in NATO because they would be required under its Article 5 provision to come directly to Ukraine’s aid. It is said that the US is lukewarm towards Ukraine’s membership while Germany, in particular, is among some leading NATO countries prepared to veto Ukraine’s membership for fear of triggering a war with Russia.

This is not unexpected given that NATO’s encroachment on Russia’s borders has been cited by the Kremlin as one of the reasons for its invasion of Ukraine. However, the irony is that had Ukraine already been in NATO it is doubtful whether Putin would have risked a war with the US and the rest of the alliance by mounting his invasion. But his actions have precipitated precisely what he was trying to avoid -- namely, the recent expansion of NATO. Now, with Finland and Sweden as new members – more NATO in the Baltic – this expansion must surely be seen as a setback and another headache for him.

Western analysts consider that Ukraine will continue to be crucial to the security of Europe in the foreseeable future. But such security will only be achieved when Putin is made to understand that sovereign states will always be defended.

As was clear at the Vilnius summit, these are important current issues and it might be interesting to examine them in more detail in a future column.