The Tribune

THE race has been run. The votes have been counted. And after all the sound and fury, the money spent and the time on the campaign trail, we are back to where we started. West Grand Bahama and Bimini have chosen a PLP candidate to fill the vacancy left by the death of PLP MP Obie Wilchcombe.

So is it the same old, same old? Well, perhaps not. Here are five things to think about emerging from the vote results.

PLP ENCOURAGED

For the PLP, it will be a case of job done. Kingsley Smith did not come into the by-election with a reputation to match his political predecessor, but he has come away with more votes than Obie Wilchcombe. He won 2,150 votes compared to 2,034 for Mr Wilchcombe at the last election.

The party clearly did not take any chances, however. A string of contract signings across the constituency in the run-up to the vote allowed them to tell voters they were doing things for them, and the Cabinet meeting held at Eight Mile Rock was an obvious photo-opportunity to bring in the heavyweights in a show of being there for the community.

The PLP very definitely wasn’t taking things for granted – and got the outcome it wanted.

Now, of course, it will have to live up to promises made on the campaign trail, while Mr Smith will have to get to work, and show his constituents in the two years or so before the next general election why they were right to vote him in.

LOW TURNOUT

Mr Smith may have won, but across the board voter turnout was low.

Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis may have played down the issue of voter turnout, saying “we turned out our voters”, but a low number of people going to the polls shows a lack of enthusiasm for all parties.

When it comes around to the general election, the PLP must hope that such mid-term apathy does not hang over, or it may face trouble.

Thousands of voters stayed at home – that puts all of their votes in play for the next time. Whichever party hopes to win that future battle will want to find a way to galvanise those stay-at-home voters. Those who do may see a big swing in their fortunes.

NO LOVE FOR INDEPENDENTS

Independent candidates DaQuan Swain and Terneille Burrows certainly did not lack for enthusiasm – though they did lack for votes, with just 32 between them.

Candidates without the backing of a party traditionally do not do well in our election system, and so it proved again.

Still, both are to be applauded for having the determination to bring their issues to the table, and perhaps making people talk about policies that might otherwise have been ignored.

COI STILL IN THE GAME

The Independent that perhaps is not an independent was Lincoln Bain, leader of the Coalition of Independents, a curious Frankenstein’s monster of a party that has bolted together all manner of individuals with different beliefs.

As a party, it might not be as independent as its label suggests, but there were enough voters for Mr Bain in the by-election to likely give him some encouragement.

It was not enough for him to get back his deposit – landing eight percent of the vote. But it is certainly enough to define the COI as the closest thing to a third party in The Bahamas right now. It might not set them on a winning trajectory for the next election, but it certainly is enough to suggest they might still be around, and those few percent might be crucial in separating the next eventual winners and losers.

BAD NEWS FOR FNM

The FNM does not have a lot to celebrate from this vote.

The campaign exposed some cracks and fissures in the party – including playing a game of Where’s Wally but substituting former Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis for Wally.

The party candidate, Bishop Ricardo Grant, seemed well liked, but got fewer votes than Pakesia Parker-Edgecombe got for the FNM in 2021. It was a step backward personally and for the party – although it might lend more strength to the suggestions that it should have been Parker-Edgecombe who got the nomination rather than Bishop Grant.

The FNM needs to sort out its identity problems. Is it a party running against the PLP? Or is it a party leader running against his predecessor?

This might not have been a seat the FNM was likely to win – former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham sounded the warning from the off that incumbent governments tended to win by-elections – but there has not been enough indication from this result that the party is any closer to the prospect of a general election win when the time comes.

Dr Minnis is surely not the answer for the FNM, particularly given his absence from the party campaign. But current leader Michael Pintard still has to make his case that he is.

There will be plenty more in the tea leaves, we are sure. As each party picks apart the proceedings over the next few days, it will be interesting to see what else emerges.

For Mr Smith, however, it’s time to get on with things. He has a new constituency to impress.