The Tribune

• Top executive ‘thrilled’ by upgraded forecast

• 1.5m passenger rise over pre-COVID in ‘24

• No sign of impact from Carnival GB port plan 

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Nassau Cruise Port is projecting a near-20 percent jump in passenger volumes to over five million for 2024, it revealed yesterday, as it watches for on any fall-out from Carnival’s Grand Bahama plans from 2025 onwards.

Michael Maura, the Prince George Wharf operator’s chief executive, told Tribune Business he was “thrilled” that Nassau is poised to achieve a previously-stated ambition of Chester Cooper, deputy prime minister and minister of tourism, investments and aviation, by next year breaking the five million cruise arrivals threshold for the first time.

Data seen by this newspaper shows that Nassau Cruise Port is forecasting it will receive 5.364m passengers during the 2024 calendar year, a 19.6 percent or 882,000 increase on the 4.483m arrivals projected for the 2023 full year.

Both figures represent major rises over previous predictions, with Mr Maura forecasting as recently as five months ago that Nassau Cruise Port had confirmed bookings for 4.2m passengers this year and between 4.5m-4.6m in 2024. The revised figures represent increases of 283,000 or 6.7 percent for 2023, and at least 764,000 or 16.6 percent for 2024, if these projections become reality.

And both this year and next are predicted to easily surpass the pre-COVID high of 2019. The 2024 projection is some 1.5m, or 39 percent, higher than the 3.859m passengers that passed through Prince George Wharf during the 2019 calendar year, while this year’s forecast is for arrivals to be 16.2 percent higher than the last pre-COVID period.

Mr Maura told Tribune Business that the $322.5m invested in upgrading Nassau Cruise Port, especially its marine infrastructure and enhanced capability to accommodate three of the world’s largest vessels at the same time, was having a “material” impact as shown in forecast passenger arrivals.

Noting that the Bahamian capital is already receiving larger ships compared to pre-COVID years, he added that both the Government and private sector must now work together to enhance the tourism product so that it proves attractive to ever-increasing visitor numbers and raises their per capita spend. Cruise passenger spending in Nassau, and associated yields, have always been perceived as among the lowest in the Caribbean.

Meanwhile, Mr Maura said Nassau Cruise Port has yet to see any impact on ship calls and bookings as a result of Carnival’s plans to open its own port, known as Celebration Cay, in Grand Bahama from mid-2025 onwards. Bookings have already been made available by the cruise line on 400 sailings by 12 of its ships from eight US ports.

“We are thrilled to be looking at the numbers we are looking at,” the Nassau Cruise Port chief told this newspaper. “We’re three to four weeks away from the winter season, so we have seen a material spike in passenger volumes which we’re looking forward to. Ship bookings and calls are very, very strong.

“We are watching Carnival, with their Grand Bahama port operation, to see whether it will any impact here, and so far it does not look like it will have an impact on Nassau because we have not seen a reduction in calls. Given the fact the industry books two-plus years in advance in terms of securing berths and so forth..

“We would be able to see, closing in on the end of 2023 and as we roll into 2024, cruise lines have already booked all of 2024 and 2025. We’d be able to see if there was a material fall-off in business from their [Carnival’s] itinerary to Celebration Cay, and we’ve not seen that at this point.”

Mr Maura conceded it was “very difficult” to forecast cruise ship occupancy numbers, with Nassau Cruise Port using 100 percent occupancy of a double-bed cabin as a benchmark. However, he added that there are now typically more than two persons per cabin.

“We’ve seen occupancy numbers fluctuate month-to-month as high as 108 percent to 109 percent,” he added. This had dropped slightly in September to around 106 percent, in line with the traditional drop-off in tourism numbers at that time due to factors such as peak hurricane season and an end to family vacations as children head back to school.

The Nassau Cruise Port chief, though, said Prince George Wharf’s ability to receive more larger cruise ships at the same time was already producing payback and returns on the recent $322.5m upgrade. “The investment in marine infrastructure, specifically the addition of the sixth berth and extension of berth number one, is material,” he added.

“So if we have six cruise ships in port we have the ability to receive three Oasis class ships, which will become three Icon class ships, at the same time.” Noting that Nassau Cruise Port received 3.85m passengers and 1,206 vessel calls in 2019, for an average of 3,192 passengers per ship, Mr Maura said the forecast 1,219 calls for the 2023 full year was not materially different from that pre-COVID period.

However, based on the forecast 4.483m passenger total for 2023, which now has less than three months left, Mr Maura added that average cruise ship occupancy this year was 3,677 - almost 500 higher than four years ago. “What that tells us is that we are getting larger ships,” Mr Maura said. “The number of ships has not materially increased. The investment in marine infrastructure is most certainly facilitating and accommodating larger ships in Nassau.”

Speaking to the enhanced passenger volumes for 2024, he added: “We were forecasting right around the 4.5m to 4.6m, but what we have seen is a large increase in bookings from the industry.” Total vessel calls to Nassau for 2024 are projected to increase by 23.1 percent to 1,501, a 282 rise over this year’s numbers.

Mr Maura said Royal Caribbean is next year projected to bring the largest number of cruise passengers to Nassau as it ramps up its scheduled calls ahead of its $110m Royal Beach Club on Paradise Island launching in 2025. “Royal is a big part of that in that, as they have been moving forward with their Royal Beach Club project on Paradise Island, the only way they are going to make their money back on that investment is to bring more people,” he added.

“I think this is a great opportunity for New Providence to invest in expanded activities and to work on improvement of the product, so as Royal brings those guests to Nassau we now have an opportunity to market ourselves to an increased number of guests that otherwise will not be coming to Nassau.

“Royal’s passengers, many of them will not want to sit on a beach. We see the project as providing an opportunity for those guests to do more; certainly enjoy the Royal Beach Club but not exclusively, and also enjoy what else Nassau has to offer.” This, Mr Maura said, was aided by the fact the Royal Beach Club is just a water taxi ride away across the harbour, thus allowing passengers to move freely between Paradise Island and downtown Nassau.

Meanwhile, Disney is projected to increase the volume of cruise passengers it brings to Nassau by more than 20 percent in 2024. Carnival is forecast to have the largest number of cruise ship calls next year, with Mediterranean Shipping Company predicted to “double the number of passengers to Nassau” and become the port’s third largest customer.

“We are continuing to work on our product at Nassau Cruise Port,” he added. “We are in the early stages of activating our amphitheatre, and bringing more music into the space. We still have food and beverage outlets waiting for activation, which are expected in the next 30 days.”

Mr Maura identified Bamboo Shack and Island Post as the two outlets expected to open within the next month. Chef Simeon Hall’s partnership with the University of The Bahamas (UoB) is expected to open in December, with a bar also set to launch in November.

“There’s still more to come. There’s still additional experiences to be had in New Providence. We’re just scratching the surface in terms of entertainment, but from what we’ve seen so far Bahamians love to come out to watch the entertainment. We’re just getting started in terms of music and so forth.”