The Tribune

By MALCOLM STRACHAN

THE by-election to elect Obie Wilchcombe’s successor has not even begun yet – but already we have some winners and losers.

With the writ of election likely to land any day now, the first order of business has been to see who would put themselves forward for the election.

So, on to the winners and losers – with the last spot saved for the biggest loser so far in this election.

First out of the gate was independent Terneille Burrows – and credit to her for persisting in putting her points of view forward.

I have a lot of time for what Terneille has to say, even if there is no likelihood of her winning the seat. Being in the race gives her a chance to put forward points that could take our nation forward – which frankly is a lot more than you get from many candidates, and even some ministers. You could probably count her participation as a win for her – with every vote a bonus.

Then, of course, there is the COI, the so-called group of independents who somehow managed to put forward their leader and loudest member, Lincoln Bain, whose first order of business has been to apologise for his deputy sharing unflattering comments about Obie Wilchcombe on social media.

I could understand the coalition at the last election but surely there is little or nothing that is independent about its members now that they have grouped together as a de facto party.

Still, their continued existence as an entity counts as a win for them – and the party made enough noise and won enough votes in the general election that it could potentially play the role of spoiler.

The biggest fight in this by-election run-up, of course, has been in the ranks of the PLP.

Shane Gibson’s bid for the candidacy was ultimately unsuccessful, more on that in a moment, but in the process it exposed divisions within a party that is usually fairly good at presenting a united face.

There is clearly no love lost between Gibson and party chairman Fred Mitchell, who initially tried to find any way he could to stop Gibson from running, it seemed.

It was right, as the party decided, that Gibson was allowed to offer himself as a candidate, but it was equally right that the members decided that the party didn’t need that baggage any more.

Even from the off, Gibson set himself up almost as the anti-party party candidate, picking fights with the hierarchy, which made no sense. The biggest card the PLP has to play in this election is that the candidate will be a part of the current administration and will have more influence than an opposition MP in encouraging the government to provide resources to the constituency. Would that hold true with a candidate who set himself up in opposition to his own party from the start? The PLP is good at coming together and singing kumbaya on the campaign trail – but this was bitter.

Gibson lambasted Minister of Foreign Affairs Mitchell, talking about how when he was in office he had to work instead of just flying up and down and drinking tea and coffee and smoking cigars, while Mitchell responded by seemingly suggesting Gibson was suffering from post-traumatic stress.

The bitterness culminated in Gibson’s supporters chanting “Fred’s gatta go” at the meeting to decide the candidate for the seat – and I’m not sure how you go from that to asking the party chairman to help you out after a successful election.

There is a collection of winners and losers in this situation. The biggest of the losers from this is clearly Shane Gibson. Voted out in an election, rejected by his party when he tries to run as a carpetbagger in a different constituency, and showing open disgruntlement with his party along the way – where does he go next? He will certainly have alienated some PLPs along the way, so cannot count it likely as having an opportunity to run in the next general election.

Maybe he should do as Fred Mitchell suggested, take stock and go and do something else with his life now. I doubt it is the last we will see of Gibson, however – he has shown no sign of stepping away from the public eye. His baggage will keep the FNM from wanting him, however, which leaves only the unlikeliest of options, going independent or joining a minor party to lend his high voltage.

Mr Mitchell, meanwhile, can count himself as a winner in this. Sure, he did not manage to stop Gibson running, but he did manage to stop him being selected – and I suspect the end of the night will have seen him particularly enjoying a victory cigar.

Even more, it will have shown him the elements of the party who are with him and those who are not with him, which no doubt will be remembered when it comes to general election candidate selection.

All of this goes without mentioning Kingsley Smith, the candidate for the PLP. The sideshow distracted from what he has to bring to the table – so he may have won the candidacy but it’s too soon to say whether he is a winner or loser from the story so far.

Certainly he can take comfort from the fact that it was a crowded field offering themselves for candidacy for the party – which shows a lot of people felt they had a chance of being elected to Parliament. Perhaps a strong sign for the vote ahead.

Over at the FNM, things have gone fairly smoothly. For half a heartbeat, there was a question of whether Pakesia Parker-Edgecombe would upset the expected candidacy of Ricardo Grant, but she threw her support behind him and the party is showing a united front – for once.

Maybe there is a thought that Hubert Ingraham – who advised skipping this by-election – might be right, and that the FNM is unlikely to win, so save your thunder for the general election, but Grant still goes into the category of winners to this point. The vote may be a different story entirely.

Which brings us to the biggest loser of all as yet – the Democratic National Alliance. The once-ambitious third force in Bahamian politics, which never managed to win a seat, has not been heard from at all. Its last leader, Arinthia Komolafe, was last seen keeping company with the FNM amid talks she would join the party.

It would be a surprise at this point to see any kind of resurgence for the party – whose lighthouse logo seems to have blown a bulb.

In the end, there will only be one real winner when the vote comes to pass. Let the countdown begin.