The Tribune

THE horror of the killings carried out inside Israel by Hamas and the intensity of what is now happening in the Israeli-Gaza war have been so great that they have dominated the world’s news. It is almost as if nothing of significance is happening elsewhere and that nobody is really interested in a development like Putin’s recent visit to Beijing which would otherwise be top of the media’s agenda.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is such a serious and fundamental issue – both for the parties directly concerned and for the immediate region because it could spread to involve other countries – that it is hard to avoid writing about it again this week. The subject has always been newsworthy because the dispute involves such deeply-held emotions and beliefs and has been going on for so long that it has been taking centre stage in international diplomacy for many years. The strife has deep roots in history and has become the longest-running conflict ever.

As everyone who follows international affairs now knows, after an extended period of relative quiet the situation has flared up again following the atrocities by Hamas on October 7. The group administers the Gaza Strip and is still holding Israeli hostages, the number of which at the time of writing is 222. Most recently, further information has become available about the orgy of killing in Israel – in the most dreadful of circumstances - of more than 1,400 people including children and babies, and this has induced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call it the nation’s “darkest hour” – echoing, as it does, Winston Churchill’s famous words during the Second World War.

It is hard to realise now that only a few weeks ago, the US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, was reported to have said that the Middle East had never been so peaceful, largely because Israel had developed an effective special missile protection shield against bomb attacks from Hamas in Gaza and from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the north.

Moreover, the Abraham Accords negotiated during the Trump presidency were signed in 2020. These were bilateral agreements about normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – together with Morocco and Sudan -- which, it was hoped, would provide the impetus for a measure of broader extra security for Israel. Additionally, Saudi Arabia was in separate talks about normalizing relations with Israel – and, during that period of relative calm, Israel was concentrating on internal matters such as the battle between liberals and conservatives as its government was moving to the right politically and making moves to overhaul the nation’s judicial system.

But, of course, the latest developments have changed the stakes dramatically. Moves towards the improvement of relations with Israel have been overtaken. Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan have been lining up to condemn Israel’s bombardment of Gaza; and, notwithstanding the Abraham Accords, the UAE has quickly joined them. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia told British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during the latter’s recent visit to the Middle East that, in particular, he strongly condemned attacks on civilians in Gaza and that there could be ‘dangerous consequences’ in the event of escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Many people agree that Israel has the right to defend itself and to take measures to prevent further attacks. Clearly, in the face of Hamas’ cruelty and pure evil, those responsible should be held to account. Thus, Israel has to react to their atrocities by seeking them out as terrorists and destroying their infrastructure. It has pledged to do that once and for all. The group had already been declared a terrorist organisation by the UK, US and other countries. Since Hamas militants are embedded in the overall population of Gaza, it is said that it will be difficult to identify them amongst ordinary people. So ground troops may be required to complete such an operation, and it now looks as though an invasion is imminent. But the important question for Israel is whether it can finally destroy the group or whether it may have to become an army of occupation.

According to the latest official figures I have seen, following the air strikes and bombardment rapidly mounted by Israel, more than 4,700 Palestinians have been killed. By carrying out indiscriminate bombing of a territory which is said to be one of the most densely populated in the world and from which its inhabitants cannot realistically escape, the Israelis have put themselves seriously in the wrong in the eyes of many critics around the world who are anyway hostile to them in their dispute with the Palestinians.

Hence, the large numbers of demonstrations against Israel last weekend in various European capitals, including a huge gathering in London, while widespread anti-Semitism has reared its head again. Above all, it will be disastrous for the Israelis if there is evidence that, rather than pursuing Hamas specifically, they are intent on collective punishment of the people of Gaza for harbouring the group. Meanwhile, aid has begun flowing through the southern border point with Egypt called Rafah, though evidently much more is needed. Reportedly, this first delivery of aid was held up while checks were made for the possible supply of arms and other items to Hamas.

Meanwhile, the flurry of diplomatic activity seems impressive at first sight. The summit meeting of Arab and European leaders in Cairo on Saturday called for an immediate ceasefire and measures to prevent the spread of the conflict while calling also for all parties to respect international law. But there are doubts about its effectiveness given that Israel, the US and Iran did not attend. What is more, some people wonder about the wisdom of deploying separately the top guns like the US president and British prime minister at such an early stage when the foreign ministers of both countries have been fully engaged in the region on the ground - as well as having the UN Secretary General standing at the Rafah border stressing the importance of aid getting through to Gaza which is obvious to all.

Perhaps the man in the street is looking for world statesmen to stand back from the details on the ground and come up with ideas for a long-term and permanent solution to this basic intractable problem at a strategic level; namely, how to arrange for Arabs and Jews to coexist peacefully in a region that has been disputed for so long.

Ruling Conservatives in Britain under fire

The ebb and flow of politics in Britain ought to be interesting to study since the nation is still a big player on the world stage, not least as a fully independent nation that is no longer a member of the European Union.

The nation experienced a period of relative political uncertainty last year with three different prime ministers in as many months – and now, last week, it has had to hold two by-elections on the same day, triggered by the resignations of the sitting MPs in the respective constituencies. In both contests the opposition Labour Party inflicted heavy defeats on the ruling Conservatives by overturning huge majorities. That means the Conservatives have lost four by-elections in just three months.

During the normal five-year period of a government under the Westminster system, by-elections usually take place from time to time as occasion demands. They can often serve as a type of protest vote when the electorate has an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with a government mid-term by voting out the current representative in their own constituency in the safe knowledge that this will not affect the party at the national level – unless, of course, it only has a tiny majority. By-elections can even be helpful in sending signals to a sitting government that it ought to change tack generally, or on any particular issue, before the next general election.

Last week, however, both by-elections – Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire – were much more than that. The results in both constituencies were nothing less than disastrous for the ruling Conservative government -- so much so that in the words of the country’s leading election expert, Sir John Curtice, it was ‘one of the worst by-election nights any government has had to endure‘ since they were two of the most overwhelming by-election defeats in the country’s history. In both seats there was a staggering swing from the Tories of more than 20 per cent. Mid Bedfordshire, in particular, had been a Tory stronghold since 1931.

These results, which reflected the substantial lead in the polls currently enjoyed by Labour, are a huge boost for them ahead of an expected general election next year. It is still too early to tell with any sort of certainty, but, short of a major turnaround in their political fortunes during the coming year, the overall view of commentators is that the Tories are heading for a landslide defeat at that election.

So, what are the reasons for the electorate’s dissatisfaction with the government and what action can Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been in office for less than a year, take to reverse his party’s fortunes in the short term?

The answer seems to be that, after 13 years of Tory rule, voters have had enough of what is now seen as a failing government that has simply run out of steam. They believe it is now time for a change. The fundamental issue seems to be the economy, in particular low growth, stubbornly strong inflation, the cost of living squeeze with increasing interest rates and a record-high tax burden together with a rising national debt. Then, add to this issues like failing public services and the perception that too many things are simply not working; for example, the National Health Service and the difficulty of getting appointments with GPs, the closure of post offices and banks and increasing rail strikes, and things like potholes in roads not being fixed.

The Prime Minister has been credited with ‘stabilizing the ship’ after the short-lived premiership of his predecessor, Liz Truss, but many believe he needs to deliver on his famous five priorities – halving inflation, growing the economy, cutting the national debt, reducing NHS waiting lists and stopping the small boats that are bringing in illegal migrants.

He has less than a year to turn things around. But Conservative supporters are now hoping there may be some optimistic and positive announcements in the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Autumn Statement next month which provides an update on the government’s plans for the economy.

Important to call Hamas terrorists

Amidst all the current suffering in the Middle East, it may seem almost banal that a row has broken out in the UK about what may appear to some as a simple matter of nomenclature. This is about the BBC’s refusal to label the Hamas gunmen, who carried out the appalling atrocities in southern Israel, as terrorists. It calls them militants instead.

The BBC says this is in accordance with its editorial guidelines. The organization maintains that to call them terrorists would amount to taking sides when the BBC should always remain objective.

This issue has already attracted considerable comment in London, mostly berating the BBC for what can only be termed their absurd stance on the matter. But there is no space to argue the case here today beyond pointing out that the UK Parliament has defined Hamas as a terrorist organization and proscribed it. The US and other countries have done likewise.

My take on this is that it is clear that the atrocities committed by the Hamas gunmen were acts of terror. That is beyond any doubt or argument. So, by refusing to call them terrorists, the BBC is breaching its own rules about impartiality.