The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

More than half of New Providence and Paradise Island resorts are “vulnerable” to the weakest storms, it was revealed yesterday, with The Bahamas facing “by far” the greatest global threat from sea level rise.

This nation’s bleak economic and fiscal outlook, if nothing is done to counter the effects of global warming, was outlined in The Bahamas’ written arguments to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that were unveiled as two weeks of legal hearings kicked-off over the obligations individual states have to combat climate change.

The arguments, signed-off by Ryan Pinder KC, the attorney general, on March 22, 2024, also revealed that The Bahamas’ seagrass meadows - valued at between 6.99bn and 8.34bn euros per year in terms of their ability to extract carbon dioxide from the earth’s atmosphere - are disappearing at a rate of between 1-2 percent per year due to climate change.

The Bahamas is relying on these natural, so-called ‘blue economy’ or ocean assets to generate potentially hundreds of millions of dollars per year via carbon credits and create a valuable new revenue stream for the Government. Other critical assets under threat include the mangrove forests and coral reefs, the latter of which was exposed to a “devastating mass bleaching event” in summer 2023 that took just a few weeks.

“Because the Bahamian economy is heavily reliant on tourism, the country is especially vulnerable to the growing intensity of tropical cyclones and storm surges,” The Bahamas argued in its written submissions. “Thirty-four percent of tourism-related businesses in New Providence and Paradise Island are located in a Category One storm surge zone, putting them at risk when a Category One storm hits.

“More than 83 percent of those businesses are located in a Category Five storm surge zone. It is currently estimated that extreme weather events caused by climate change will cause a loss of up to 9 percent of The Bahamas’ GDP (gross domestic product) annually by 2030, and a 34 percent loss in coastal value in a 50-year timeframe.”

The Bahamas’ low-lying nature makes it “extremely susceptible to the effects of sea level rise”, and the Government’s written submissions to the ICJ argued: “Alarmingly, it is estimated that global mean sea level will rise between 0.43 to 0.84 metres by 2100, which would spell disaster for The Bahamas.

“In comparison to neighbouring island nations, The Bahamas confronts ‘by far’ the greatest proportional threat from sea level rise given that 32 percent of its land, 25 percent of its population and 13 percent of its Internet infrastructure are less than 0.5 metres above sea level....

“Coastal erosion and flooding caused by rising sea levels poses another serious threat. The Bahamas is predicted to suffer the largest loss of shore in the Caribbean region by 2050, estimated at between 55 percent to 59 percent. It is also estimated that by 2100 there will be a total loss of all sandy beaches in the country.”

Pointing to the economic consequences for the tourism-dependent Bahamas, the Government added: “This loss of the coastline will have significant adverse socio-economic and cultural consequences for the Bahamian people. For example, the natural harbours along waterfronts are the site for major commercial developments, such as shops, high-scale hotels and residential buildings.

“There are ‘serious economic and social implications’ for the tourism sector which constitutes more than 50 percent of GDP, and for communities where the coastline becomes uninhabitable due to sea level rise. It is currently predicted that even one metre of sea level rise would place 36 percent of major tourism properties, 38 percent of airports, 14 percent of road networks and 90 percent of seaports at risk.

“In addition, up to 51 percent of tourism-related properties in New Providence and Paradise Island would be vulnerable to a Category One storm and up to 90 percent to a Category Five storm in a one-metre of sea level rise scenario,” it warned.

“Coastal inundation and loss will also have adverse effects on cultural heritage and the way of life of the Bahamian people, who will invariably be deprived of the traditional, economic and recreational uses of their coastal territory.”

The environmental fall-out also threatens to negatively impact a fisheries industry which generates $80m in annual foreign currency export earnings plus is estimated to have a $500m value or economic impact from recreational fishing alone.

Turning to seagrass meadows specifically, The Bahamas warned: “These organisms constitute important carbon sinks, and crucially support biodiversity, water quality, fisheries and coastal protection, along with providing recreational and cultural value. The Bahamas holds the world’s largest seagrass ecosystem in the ocean, covering an estimated area of 67,000−92,500 square kilometres.

“Bahamian seagrass can store between 35.7m and 3.9bm megagrams of carbon and between 103 and 123 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. The Bahamas is thus viewed as ‘a global hot spot of seagrass distribution and blue carbon pool’, and is one of only 13 countries that incorporate seagrass in their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.

“In fact, seagrass ecosystems in The Bahamas have been recognised as playing a critical role in climate change mitigation. However, seagrass has been declining globally at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year, partially due to climate change. The evidence suggests that carbon capture has been decreasing in The Bahamas since the 1980s, reducing coastal protection against sea level rise and hurricanes,” it added.

“The absorption of atmospheric carbon by seagrass beds and mangroves is also of economic significance to The Bahamas. Seagrass beds are an important basis of the Blue Carbon Credits, a programme enabling entities to offset their carbon emissions by purchasing blue carbon credits equivalent to stocks of carbon dioxide sequestered in seagrass beds in The Bahamas.

“It is anticipated that Blue Carbon Credits on the open market can generate hundreds of millions of dollars a year in critical revenue to The Bahamas. The destruction of seagrass beds in The Bahamas will put this opportunity at risk.” 

As for mangroves, which also capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, The Bahamas said: “The Bahamas is home to some of the largest mangrove ecosystems in the Caribbean, with the total estimated at 612,000 acres. They are a tourist attraction and are a source of provisions to locals, with an estimated value of about $3.2m per square mile per year.

“However, these ecosystems are also under attack from the deleterious impacts of climate-induced changes to the weather and the marine environment. For example, over 90 percent of viable mangroves have been lost in The Bahamas due to an extreme weather event, with 73.8 percent of mangrove ecosystems in Grand Bahama and 40.1 percent in Abaco classified as ‘[d]amaged’ or ‘[d]estroyed’” due to Hurricane Dorian.

Summing up, The Bahamas told the ICJ: “The picture described above is desperately bleak. It makes clear that The Bahamas faces an existential and catastrophic threat from the impacts of climate change.

“The country’s natural and built environment, social and economic structures, cultural practices and territorial integrity face irreparable damage unless the international community takes effective action against climate change.”