The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL 

Tribune Business Editor 

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

GRAND Bahama’s contribution to the country’s total economic output fell by $452m, or 22.6 percent, over the nine years to end-2023 to leave it as the sole island with a lower GDP than at COVID’s peak.

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI), in unveiling data breaking down each island’s gross domestic product (GDP) contribution between 2015 and 2023, revealed that Grand Bahama’s economic output dropped from $1.998bn in 2015 to $1.546bn in 2023. The island’s annual GDP over that period peaked at $2.189bn in 2017, with 2023’s figure representing a decline of 29.4 percent.

And, according to the BNSI, Grand Bahama’s economic output hit a nine-year low of $1.53bn in 2022 before improving slightly to $1.546bn in 2023. Both figures were below the GDP generated by the island during the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak, with output for 2020 and 2021 pegged at $1.771bn and $1.84bn, respectively.

The data shows Grand Bahama as the only Bahamian island that has continued to stagnate economically, with all others having rebounded and increased economic output since the pandemic. 

Prime Minister Philip Davis KC previously alluded to this in his 2023-2024 Budget communication, and the Government is likely to seize on these latest figures to boost its case for change at the Grand Bahama Port Authority.

The two sides are already heading to arbitration over the Government’s claim that the Port Authority owes it a collective $357m for public spending in Freeport that exceeds tax revenue generated by the city between 2018-2022, with another $75m bill set to come this fiscal year.

The Davis administration will likely argue that the BNSI data shows the Port Authority is failing to live up to its development obligations under the Hawksbill Creek Agreement, and that to reverse Grand Bahama’s decline fundamental change is needed in Freeport’s governance and business model.

“Grand Bahama’s GDP for 2023 increased marginally when compared to the previous year. The wholesale and retail trade, motor vehicle repairs, transport and storage industry increased by $47m, while the arts, other services, household employment, and extraterritorial organisations grew by $12m,” the BNSI said.

“These increases abated the waning of a few Industries that previously bolstered the Grand Bahamian economy. In 2023, Grand Bahama represented 10.8 percent of the overall GDP of The Bahamas.” New Providence, meanwhile, produced “unmatched” economic expansion in 2023 as it led the overall economy’s post-COVID reflation.

“The annual GDP trends for New Providence showed unmatched levels in 2023 when compared to any other year,” the BNSI report said. “Economic activity in the capital increased by 11 percent when compared to the previous year with industries connected to the tourism sector contributing the lion’s share of this increase.

“Accommodation and food services showed an increase of $436m, and arts, other services and household employment, extra-territorial organisations increased by $208m. In 2023, New Providence represented 77 percent of the overall economy of The Bahamas.” The island’s economic contribution jumped from $9.937bn in 2022 to $11.027bn, representing a nine-year high.

Collectively, the Family Islands generated $1.765bn in total economic output in 2023. Abaco, which had to contend with Hurricane Dorian’s devastation as well as COVID, saw its GDP contribution increase by $20m year-over-year to $504m in 2023. The latter figure is still down on the $586m peak for the nine year-period that was generated in 2018 plus all years pre-Dorian.

“The GDP of Abaco for 2023 showed an increase of $20m over 2022. The economy of Abaco indicated that it is recovering in spite of the twin disasters of Hurricane Dorian and the COVID-19 pandemic,” the BNSI report said.

“Although Abaco is still recovering from the damages to its infrastructure, the majority of the industries reported gains slightly above 2022. Abaco remains the third largest economy in The Bahamas in 2023, representing 3.5 percent of the total GDP of The Bahamas.”

Eleuthera’s 2023 economic output hit a nine-year high of $374m in 2023, representing an $8m or 2.1 percent rise on the prior year. Exuma’s contribution, though, fell from 2022’s nine-year high of $252m to $230m in 2023. “When compared to pre-pandemic, all industrial groups showed some level of a rebound, rivalled only by 2022. Exuma represents 13 percent of the total Family Island GDP in 2023,” BNSI said.

“In 2023, Bimini and the Berry Island’s GDP reported the highest level for the period 2015–2023. This island group reported $212m in 2023, a GDP that surpassed that of 2019 by $6m. These islands represented 1.5 percent of the total economy of The Bahamas in 2023.

“The impact of tourism on these islands was evident beginning in 2020, although exponential growth was experienced during the period 2021 to 2023. The industrial grouping: Real estate, owner-occupied and actual rents led the increase [at] 28 percent, while the accommodation and food services, arts, other services, household employment, and extraterritorial organisations grew by 23 percent compared to 2022.”

Long Island’s 2023 GDP was some $5m down on the prior year, coming in at $61m, although the latter figure was some $11m ahead of 2019’s $50m. “The GDP for the island of Andros increased by $16m (14.6 percent) over 2022” to $129m, the BNSI report said.

“Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay’s GDP rose by 16 percent in 2023 compared to 2022. These islands reported a total of $58m in 2023, which represented a total of 0.4 percent of the total economy of the Bahamas.....These islands experienced an overall increase in GDP of more than $7.9m when compared to 2022.

“The 2023 GDP for Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island and Inagua showed an increase of 24 percent over the previous year. For the period 2015 to 2023, the year 2023 reported the highest level of growth. The combined group of mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity and gas, water supply and sewerage, and construction was responsible for the majority of the increase, or $22m of the overall increase of $31m.”

Other Family Islands, including Harbour Island, Spanish Wells and Ragged Island, saw their combined GDP contribution remain at $36m.