The Tribune

THE Republican Convention is dominating the headlines this week, as expected. On Monday, Donald Trump was unanimously nominated as the GOP candidate for president, and he surprised some but also satisfied many by naming 39-year-old JD Vance as his vice-presidential running mate. 

Vance looks like a wise choice for Trump, whose confidence that he will win re-election must be as high as it has ever been.

Vance, now in his second year as junior US senator from Ohio, served in the Marine Corps; was graduated from highly selective Yale Law School; wrote a best-selling book (“Hillbilly Elegy”) that chronicled a hardscrabble youth spent among relatively poor displaced white workers; worked for a while under a right-wing mogul in Silicon Valley near San Francisco; attacked and then successfully recanted scathing criticisms of Trump less than a decade ago, and has since done two things that probably led to Monday’s selection.

First, Vance has developed a pretty close relationship with Trump scion Donald Trump, Jr. Both men have publicly boasted about that, and it appears they share a genuine friendship and mutual regard.

Secondly, Vance has adopted the attack dog stance that for many years was favoured by presidential candidates. The idea was that the V-P candidate had few constitutional duties anyway and shouldn’t deflect any attention from the top of the ticket, so the V-P candidate concentrates on the dirty work of assaulting the opposition so the presidential nominee could appear above the fray and presidential.

Vance fulfills the attack dog responsibilities as have few others in recent memory. To some observers, he actually out-demagogues Trump himself, all while carefully positioning himself as appropriately deferential to the boss. It’s been a quick ascent for a smart, gifted man who will likely do exactly what Trump wants during the campaign.

If Trump wins in November, however, Vance’s stance would likely change, since Trump would be constitutionally barred from seeking another term and Vance would almost automatically be anointed as his successor. Vance would logically want to appear presidential at some point in his vice-presidential team, perhaps even from near the start of that term, but certainly before its third year.

Here are a couple of other tidbits about Vance, and about his very impressive wife, Usha, who is the daughter of immigrants from India, as is former South Carolina governor, UN ambassador and recent presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

First: It is interesting to note that one of the big reasons president Joe Biden picked former California senator Kamala Harris as his running mate in 2020 was her warm friendship when both were attorneys general of their respective states with Biden’s son Beau. Beau was the far more accomplished of Biden’s two sons and the one who seemed on a political arc that might have rivalled his father’s when he died of brain cancer in 2015.

But one of the reasons often cited for the meteoric ascendancy of JD Vance to be the GOP vice-presidential candidate this year is his own apparently close friendship with Trump, Jr. Both V-P contenders thus seem to owe their position, at least in part, to friendships with the sons of the presidential candidates.

Second: Vance and his wife Usha met at Yale Law School, where it appears that Usha must have compiled a stupendous record of academic achievement, since after graduation she studied at Cambridge University in England and then clerked for both then Court of Appeals judge and now Supreme Court justice Brett Cavanagh and later for the top jurist in the US, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.

One can only imagine the level of intense competition for such positions among recent law school graduates.

The Vances’ meeting at law school is reminiscent of another high-profile couple who met there. That’s Bill and Hillary Clinton. From many reports, Hillary Clinton, like Usha Vance, met her future husband while both studied at Yale and then devoted time to family and legal careers while their husbands pursued highly successful political careers.

For now, the campaign rosters are set. It will be Biden and Harris versus Trump and Vance in November – if Biden survives a storm of skepticism and doubt inflamed by his lame performance in a June 27 televised debate with Trump.

Democrats and liberals are wringing their hands in dismay as Biden’s age and ability to handle his momentous responsibilities seem to become a larger issue almost every day and to preoccupy mainstream news media including the New York Times and the major TV networks.

Biden, who has now sat for lengthy interviews with both ABC and NBC since his debate fiasco, is generally doing well in these highly scrutinized tests of his acumen and stamina. But he also exhibits an annoying peevishness that is jarring and unattractive. He detracts from overall strong performances by whining about why his interviewers aren’t concentrating on Trump’s continuing existential threat to the American political system.

To his credit, Biden has come around and has acknowledged his dreadful debate performance. But whispers continue to be heard from campaign and media insiders that the Biden we saw on national TV in late June is more the real day to day Biden than was previously revealed or reported.

If Biden is to survive the growing chorus of criticism of his age and fitness for four more years as president, he needs to campaign vigorously and wisely. He can only silence the critics with strong performances in public for a such as campaign rallies and press conferences.

And, especially in light of last week’s assassination attempt against Trump in western Pennsylvania, Biden needs to carefully allot his public appearances to have the most significance for the November election.

Practically, this means focusing on just three states that have been described as the key bricks in the so-called “Blue Wall” of Democratic support in national elections.

Those states are Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These three are often cited as part of a group of seven “swing states” that will decide this election. The others are in the West (Arizona and Nevada) and the South (Georgia and North Carolina).

But a recent New York Times analysis shows that despite Biden’s current sagging position in national polls, he can still win this election by carrying giant, consistently Democratic-supporting states like New York, California and Illinois, together with numerous smaller states in the West and New England – so long as he carries the three crucial Upper Midwest states.

Maybe Biden can win in Arizona and Nevada. Georgia and North Carolina are frankly long shots. But he must carry the critical Midwest Big Three of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. So that’s where he should spend his time.

Donald Trump agrees. Here’s what he said as he announced his nomination of Vance: “JD Vance has had a very successful business career in Technology and Finance, and now, during the campaign, will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and far beyond.”

Trump also mentioned Minnesota and Ohio in his remarks, but if Biden loses Minnesota or Trump loses Ohio, they’re already in so much trouble that worrying about the Big Three will be pointless.

It is interesting that Trump, in his announcement, also mentioned American workers. The Big Three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all feature big industrial bases and trade union strength and influence that have traditionally been closely aligned with the Democratic Party.

One of the keys to Ronald Reagan’s great political success in the 1980s was his ability to appeal beyond union leadership and traditional political allegiance to individual American industrial workers. Many of them defied their union leaders and supported Reagan.

Trump has shown some ability to emulate Reagan in this regard. While several giant trade unions have indicated that they will support Biden, some others like the Teamsters Union are wavering. Labour unions have long offered major support to political parties (mostly Democrats) with their ability to organise workers and make sure they vote on Election Day.

Biden has touted his support for and affiliation with unions throughout his presidency, with good reason. But over the past 40 years, the GOP has used inflation and fear of globalisation and job loss to stoke anger and resistance to Democratic policies.