The Tribune

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology has issued a special weather statement advising residents to closely monitor the progress of a large tropical wave currently located near the Lesser Antilles that has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression by the weekend.

While the chance of formation in the next two days is near zero percent, the chance of formation in the next seven days is medium at 60 percent.

The system, which is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is moving west-northwestward towards the Greater Antilles and The Bahamas. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, with the potential for this system to evolve into a tropical depression by the weekend.

In the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, including Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins, Ragged Island, Long Cay, Providenciales, and Grand Turk, showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin by Thursday afternoon and continue until Friday night. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with local isolated maxima of up to 4 inches are possible. Winds are forecast to be easterly at 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts, and seas will be 5 to 8 feet over the ocean, higher in gusts.

The Central Bahamas, including Exuma, Cat Island, San Salvador, Rum Cay, and Long Island, will experience showers and thunderstorms from Friday until Saturday night. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with local isolated maxima up to 4 inches are possible. Winds are expected to be easterly at 15 to 25 knots on Friday, veering southeast to south at 15 to 20 knots on Saturday. Seas will be 5 to 8 feet over the ocean, but higher in gusts, decreasing to 4 to 6 feet on Saturday and 2 to 4 feet by Sunday evening.

In the Northwest Bahamas, which includes Grand Bahama, Bimini, Abaco, Berry Islands, Andros, New Providence, and Eleuthera, showers and thunderstorms will begin on Saturday and continue until Sunday night. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local maxima up to 6 inches are possible over the extreme Northwest Islands of Grand Bahama, Bimini, and North/Central Abaco. Winds will be northeast to east at 15 to 20 knots, veering southeasterly at 15 to 25 knots with possible higher gusts by late Saturday into early Sunday. Seas will be 4 to 6 feet, building to 5 to 8 feet over the ocean by late Saturday, but higher in gusts, and will diminish to 2 to 4 feet by Monday.

According to the Met office statement, heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding, especially in low-lying and flood-prone areas of The Bahamas. Prolonged rainfall will cause localized flooding with the pooling of surface runoff. The formation of funnel clouds, waterspouts, and possible isolated tornadic activity will increase ahead of, along, and just after the passage of this system. 

Mariners and the wider public are advised to seek safe shelter or safe harbor when the weather deteriorates and remain sheltered until the threat has passed. Small craft operators should not venture far from port and be ready to seek safe harbor immediately if conditions worsen, the statement added.