The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Higher spending air visitors declined narrowly in April likely due to the peak Easter holiday weekend falling at end-March, it was revealed yesterday, as total arrivals year-to-date jumped 12.4 percent.

The Central Bank, unveiling its monthly economic developments report for April, disclosed that The Bahamas received a total 3.9m visitors during the first four months of 2024 led largely by the volume-driven cruise industry. Higher-yielding stopover visitors, who typically spend 28 times’ more in-country than their cruise counterparts, were said to have “held steady” at 700,000 arrivals for the period.

“Initial data revealed that the tourism sector continued to register healthy gains during the review month. This reflected expected expenditure paced strength in the high-value added air segment and expanded volume in the sea component, due to sustained demand for travel in key source markets and ongoing marketing efforts,” the Central Bank said.

“Official figures provided by the Ministry of Tourism indicated that total visitor arrivals rose to 910,000 in April compared to 870,000 a year earlier. The dominant sea segment firmed to 750,000 visitors from 690,000 passengers in the comparative 2023 period. However, the high value-added air component edged down to 160,000 visitors from 170,000 in the prior year.

“A disaggregation by major port of entry showed that total arrivals to New Providence expanded by 10.4 percent to 400,000 visitors. Underlying this development, sea passengers grew by 18.5 percent to 300,000. However, air traffic declined by 7 percent to 100,000 from a year earlier,” the regulator continued.

“Further, total arrivals to Grand Bahama rose by 1.5 percent to 47,108 relative to the previous year. Contributing to this outturn, arrivals by sea grew by 2.3 percent to 42,015 compared to 2023. Conversely, air traffic decline by 4.4 percent to 5,093 vis- à-vis the same period last year. 

“Providing some offset, total arrivals to the Family Islands decreased slightly by 0.4 percent to 400,000 vis-à- vis the preceding year as sea and air passengers measured 377,190 and 33,931 respectively.” 

Assessing tourism’s strength for the first four months of 2024, the Central Bank added: “On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals strengthened by 12.4 percent to 3.9m visitors relative to the comparable 2023 period. Sea arrivals rose by 14.4 percent to 3.3m while air traffic held steady at 700,000.

“The most recent statistics provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) indicated that total departures in April - net of domestic passengers - also decreased by 0.3 percent to 151,591 vis-à- vis the comparable 2023 period.

“Specifically, non-US departures declined by 9.8 percent to 20,026. However, US departures grew marginally by 1.3 percent to 131,565. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic advanced by 8 percent to 596,086 on account of a rise in both US departures by 9 percent to 509,279, and non-US departures by 2.1 percent to 86,807,” the regulator said.

“In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that in April total room nights sold declined by 5.5 percent to 53,588 when compared to the same period last year. Correspondingly, the occupancy rate for entire place listings reduced to 47.9 percent from 56.4 percent a year earlier, while the occupancy rate for hotel comparable listings decreased to 45.8 percent from 53.5 percent in 2023.

“Meanwhile, price indicators revealed that the average daily room rate (ADR) for both entire place and hotel comparable listings moved higher by 3.8 percent and by 5.5 percent to $692.54 and $197.02, respectively.”

The Central Bank added that average consumer price inflation, a measured by the All Bahamas Retail Price Index, was slashed by more than half for February 2024 as it came in at 2.5 percent compared to the prior year’s 5.8 percent.

It also left its economic outlook largely unchanged from that of previous months. “The domestic economy is expected to expand at a moderated pace in 2024, bolstered by ongoing gains in the tourism industry and other areas of the real sector,” the Central Bank said. 

“In addition, new and ongoing foreign investment projects are anticipated to provide support to the construction sector and aid economic growth. However, downside risks to tourism remain, predominantly related to exogenous factors such as geopolitical tensions and heightened global oil prices, which could disrupt travel sector activity....

“With regard to the labour market, employment conditions are expected to continue to improve with additional job gains primarily in the construction and tourism sectors. In terms of prices, inflation is projected to maintain its downward trajectory, as global oil prices taper off” even though global oil price uncertainty, supply chain shocks and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East remain risks.

“Nevertheless, the environment should encourage a rise in lending to the private sector. Further, external reserves are forecasted to remain robust for the rest of year, although a modest reduction is likely, given the anticipated growth in domestic credit,” the Central Bank said. 

“Nonetheless, external balances should remain more than sufficient to maintain the Bahamian dollar currency peg, while foreign exchange market conditions are projected to stay at healthy levels supported by tourism inflows and other private sector activities.”