The Tribune

by SIMON

It has almost been 30 years since the Bahamian people reelected a government. The last time was in 1997, when Hubert Ingraham and the Free National Movement ended the 25-year run of Sir Lynden Pindling and the Progressive Liberal Party.

That year, the FNM got a whopping 57.7 percent of the vote compared to 41.9 percent for the PLP. Sir Lynden reportedly initially assumed that Ingraham would be a one-term prime minister.

The Chicago Tribune reported on the general election: “Before the vote, citizens said that, after four years of relative prosperity, they wanted a government that would crack down on crime and create more jobs. Both Ingraham and Pindling had promised to do so.

“The FNM pointed to its record since 1992… It pointed to infrastructure works, the revitalised tourist industry, the creation of 14,000 new jobs and major foreign investment.

“The PLP, which was tainted by allegations of corruption during its last tenure, promised more state involvement in the economy to make jobs.”

In the lead-up to the election the construction of phase two of Atlantis was in train. The country was booming. Figuratively and literally, Atlantis was rising. The megaresort visible from many vantage points throughout New Providence.

It was one of the largest construction projects in Bahamian history, with many Bahamian companies and subcontractors involved.

Several thousand were already permanently employed following phase one. Phase two offered scores of construction jobs and the promise of more full-time jobs at the resort. The boom in construction meant economic good times for many businesses ranging from suppliers of material to retail stores including luxury and jewelry outlets.

Atlantis delivered two extraordinary economic feats: an experience of increasing prosperity and the promise of sustainable growth. It increased GDP, significantly lessened unemployment, and circulated capital at every level of the economy.

It was industrial scale tourism and added more Bahamians to the middle and upper middle classes. Atlantis helped to revive a moribund tourism industry. Curiously, some in the PLP initially opposed the new resort.

Ingraham made other changes to the tourism product and infrastructure that also benefitted the economy. The reputation of the country as a premiere destination improved dramatically. The excitement and expectation of economic success and growth was palpable.

We are now living in very different times, especially following the Great Recession of 2008 and the post-COVID-19 cost of living after-effects. Bahamians under a certain age do not recall the spiral of inflation of the early 1970s to the early 1980s.

Back then, inflation was fueled by the high gas prices caused by the energy crisis, high government deficits, and a range of other causes. Consumers kept experiencing sticker shock on goods and services.

Decades later, Bahamians, like consumers worldwide, continue to be shocked by ever rising prices, especially for food, energy costs, housing and other costs. Rents have skyrocketed. The amount now being paid for electricity is shocking for residential and consumer customers of BPL. The cost of electricity adds significantly to many other costs.

It is within this context that incumbents are today trying to retain office. In Australia, where a first-term government usually wins reelection, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labour Party are worried about becoming a minority or one-term government because of high costs, including for housing.

WHYY PBS recently reported: “Maziar Minovi, CEO of the Eurasia Group, has studied the political reaction to dozens of inflation spikes going back decades and found the party in power was about twice as likely as usual to be ousted. ‘When there is an inflationary shock across the world, the risk of the incumbents getting kicked out — no matter what party or persuasion they are — goes up a lot…’

“Minovi’s research shows voters aren’t inclined to forgive inflation, even when — as in this case — it’s happening all over the world.

“‘It also didn’t seem to matter much to voters if the price surge occurred in isolation or was part of a global inflationary shock,’ Minovi and his colleague Robert Kahn wrote in a research note to clients. ‘Throw the bums out either way.’”

In response to the high inflation in The Bahamas, Prime Minister Philip Davis recently made some highly impolitic and insensitive remarks that provoked a backlash that will haunt him going into the next general election.

Voters, who may already be angry with an incumbent government, will grow only angrier if they perceive that the government of the day is callous and unresponsive. The prime minister’s frequent travelling has become a political football, with voters viewing such constant travelling negatively.

In a statement on the high cost of living, the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) noted: “From limited competition in essential industries to high shipping costs, monopolised sectors, and a housing market affected by high demand from vacation rentals, the cost of living has remained persistently high in The Bahamas.

“In fact, The Bahamas ranks among the top six most expensive places in the world, a reflection of these entrenched issues.

“Monopolies and a lack of competition in key areas mean that Bahamians often have limited choices and pay higher prices for goods and services. Additionally, the growth of the short-term rental market has squeezed rental inventory, making it more challenging and costly for Bahamians to find affordable housing.

“These structural issues require a committed approach, not just for short-term relief, but for long-term, lasting change…

“The challenges we face are complex and requires bold action, and we know that structural change takes time.”

The statement was reasonable and had a number of significant points. But even in the best of times, much less the current difficult times, voters are typically neither reasonable nor rationale. Academic-like statements on high costs mean little to the vast majority of voters.

How long will it be before voters in the US punish the Republicans and the incoming presidential administration if high costs persist?

The last line in the OPM statement partially sums up the difficulty for PLP headed into the next election. There is little time left to ease the cost of living crisis. Further, there are many structural issues The Bahamas has failed to address and which make us a highly expensive country in which to live. They will not be solved anytime soon. Throwing out a government every five years is now a structural reality in The Bahamas.

It is possible for the PLP to win the next election. It is just as possible that the FNM may win, especially with what appears to be a global anti-incumbency wave.

The boom of the late 1990s increased the expectations of Bahamians. These expectations have not been met subsequently. They will not be met again anytime soon.

Even if the FNM wins, it will also likely have a single term, unless there is a series of economic miracles in The Bahamas on the order of the first Ingraham terms.