The Tribune

By MALCOLM STRACHAN

IF you enjoy reading the political tea leaves, there has been plenty to consider after all the sip-sip of the past few weeks.

The countdown to the next election is well and truly on – the only thing missing is a number. Somewhere a date is circled on a calendar with a question mark next to it, you would think, with all the manoeuvering going on in the background.

Let’s start with the big one – and sorry, Iram Lewis, that was never you.

You could not exactly accuse the FNM of ripping off the band-aid when it comes to removing Dr Hubert Minnis from its prospective candidates list for the next election – it has been a long time coming.

There are certainly reasons why it has taken so long – there is a process to follow, even if there have been claims that those processes have not been followed properly.

And, like Dr Minnis or not, he does have a base that supports him. Not enough to avoid losing the last election by a landslide, and not enough to avoid being handsomely beaten in not one but two leadership elections – but a following nonetheless.

Some of his supporters were speaking up after word spread of Dr Minnis being denied a nomination for the next election.

The chairwoman of the Killarney Constituency Association called Dr Minnis “an institution”, adding: “PLPs have run against him, independents have run against him, but I’m almost certain that they won’t be victorious.”

There was talk of supporting Dr Minnis if he runs as an independent in the constituency.

Another council representative, Melvita Collie, said if Dr Minnis is not on the ticket then the four votes in her house “will stay at home…. It’s as simple as that.”

That could be the same kind of pain the FNM experienced at the last election – where the lack of a turnout for the party was as costly as support for the soon-to-be government.

But what does the future hold for Dr Minnis? There seems no doubting his determination to still be heard – he is not a shy man, that is for sure.

If he pushes back against the party over the lack of a nomination, what are his options? Somehow convince the party to keep him on the ticket, even when it is obvious there are substantial differences between him and the leadership? That is brewing up trouble for another day.

Does he challenge again for the leadership? Constitutionally, that is a non-starter, so the party’s rules would have to be torn up in a far more dramatic fashion than Richard Johnson managed in a tame stunt on television this week.

How about a breakaway, to run with allies under a new banner – or borrow a lesson from the Valley Boys and fight over the same banner – or as an independent?

One would hope that Dr Minnis, while his political instincts were at question when he called an early election only to lose by a landside, would realise that he would more than likely lose handily in that scenario.

Cross the floor to the PLP? Why would they want him? He’s causing quite enough damage to their opponents where he is.

Or perhaps Dr Minnis should take some advice from a source of great wisdom – Kenny Rogers. After all, you’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run.

If Dr Minnis plans on staying in the game, then he has to know the stakes.

Looking elsewhere, we have Iram Lewis, whose dramatic departure from the FNM isn’t even big news just a week later. He has flounced off to join the Coalition of Independents, and can start planning for life when he gets voted out of office. Why on earth would anyone who supported him initially continue to vote for him now he has turned his back on the party he ran for?

Adrian Gibson seems to be on the out too, with party supporters in Long Island seemingly looking at other options such as Andre Rollins or Michael Turnquest.

Whether that is because of the legal entanglements he has found himself in, or the seeming loyalty to Dr Minnis’ camp, who knows? But there seems a push for a change in representation there.

Let us look across the table then. Over in MICAL, Basil McIntosh MP, is not coming back to the table. His constituents like him as a person, but you could hardly say he has left a memorable impression either in Parliament or in his Cabinet role. If I didn’t tell you he was the State Minister for Aviation, would you have known?

Shane Gibson is already eyeing that position – and after his campaign for the nomination for West Grand Bahama and Bimini in the by-election was fiercely opposed by party chairman Fred Mitchell, that could prove to be a combustible situation.

North Eleuthera MP Sylvanus Petty is also calling time as an MP. The Deputy Speaker said his “season for frontline politics is coming to an end”, adding that he needed to “refocus, reposition and recalibrate”. Tellingly, one voice talked of how Mr Petty had been a “great MP” and “did what he could with the little resources that he had”. One wonders if a feeling of a lack of resources might play a part when people decide where to cast their vote next time.

Then there is Vaughn Miller. Constituents expressed dissatisfaction with the Golden Isles MP. As Minister for Environment, he has been largely invisible, despite the environment being a major part of the PLP’s platform, particularly when it comes to issues such as climate change, carbon credits, switching to solar power, preserving the undersea environment and so on. Mr Miller’s voice ought to be at the forefront, but the former FNM MP, who switched to the PLP before the last election, has been described as “underwhelming” by some residents.

And yet the most notable thing about Mr Miller is that there appears to be no one to challenge him. Party chairman Mr Mitchell said no one else has shown interest in the seat. Mr Miller intends to run again – and so with no opposition it is likely he will be renominated.

What does it say about confidence in the party in power that there is absolutely no one wanting to challenge for the nomination in a seat with what some perceive to be an underperforming candidate?

In all the political tea leaves, that is the one I find most interesting. Are people wary of running on a losing ticket?

It’s the start of a new week. Pour some more tea.