The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A Bahamian auto dealer yesterday revealed it will invest up to $500,000 in a new showroom and create “at least” five jobs for its newly-acquired Chinese brand despite “market saturation” concerns.

Fred Albury, Auto Mall’s principal, told Tribune Business the planned Wulff Road facility will house its MG Motor distributorship as it bids to exploit an anticipated Bahamian consumer “shift” to Chinese auto brands due to their lower price points.

Pointing to the improved quality of Chinese-manufactured vehicles, he disclosed that Auto Mall is targeting “a few hundred” MG new vehicle sales per year based on what rival dealership, Elite Motors, has achieved with its own brand, Changan, during the initial few months.

The sudden influx of Chinese vehicle brands, both electric and gasoline, into The Bahamas is occurring despite industry concerns that the auto market is becoming over-saturated and that this could cause a slowdown following several years of strong post-COVID sales.

Ben Albury, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s (BMDA) president, told this newspaper that there have been “internal discussions” among dealers over “market saturation” fears but he remains “cautiously optimistic” that 2025 will produce a repeat of the strong industry-wide sales enjoyed since 2022 and the emergence from the pandemic.

Echoing this outlook, Fred Albury said that while guarding against becoming “overly optimistic” he is forecasting that BMDA members will collectively sell between 2,500 to 2,700 new autos this year compared to the 3,000 deals generated in what he described as a “record” 2024.

“We’ve got some new brands coming into the market,” he revealed. “Elite has Changan, and we have taken on a brand of Chinese vehicles too, MG. We have vehicles coming in starting around the end of the month. We’re going to utilise our Wulff Road facility and set up a showroom there.

“We’re going to be spending probably $400,000-$500,000 on a showroom and facility over there at Wulff Road. There will definitely be some job additions. I would say at least five. There’s going to be a shift to Chinese brands because of the price points out they come out at.

“The quality has improved tremendously. They’re good. They’re making big inroads in the Asian market. Based on what we’ve seen Elite do with the Changan brand in the first two months of operation, and they’ve done very well, I think the MG brand is good for a few hundred units per year.”

Fred Albury said the new jobs will likely be created in the service and parts departments, with Auto Mall already possessing the necessary MG Motors sales team. However, he added that his company and other businesses are finding it increasingly tough to recruit and retain workers for starting job positions.

“It has become difficult,” he added. “Right now, finding people to work is one thing. They want a job, but don’t want to work, especially at the lower end. Dealing with car cleaners, drivers, we have difficulty finding people who will stick with it.”

Turning to the industry’s 2025 prospects, the Auto Mall chief told Tribune Business: “I thought that 2024 was going to see a slowdown because we’ve been busting wide open for 2022 and 2023, but 2024 was a record year out there for us and other dealers. I would like to think it’s probably a 10 percent increase over the year before industry-wide.

“I think 2025 is going to be reasonable. I’m not going to get overly optimistic. I think it’s going to be, at least for the first half, reasonable unless something dramatic happens. I feel it’s going to be a reasonable year. Last year was a record year. I think, all in all, probably new car sales for BMDA members represented 3,000 units. That does not include a couple of dealers who are not part of the BMDA.

“The used cars are still coming in in record numbers. I think it’s reasonable to say that 2,500-2,700 new vehicle sales will be the forecast for 2025,” Fred Albury continued, “unless the new US administration does stuff to impact the export of vehicles from Asia. I would say that’s the only hiccup that might possibly happen.

“I don’t see anything to deter unless the bottom falls out. I’ve seen the reports in the US and China about this flu epidemic, but unless we have another COVID-19 epidemic, our economy is doing pretty well. Tourism is doing well. I think it’s going to be a fairly reasonable year.”

Ben Albury, the BMDA president, who is also Bahamas Bus and Truck’s general manager, shared a similar outlook while disclosing industry concerns that sales may “taper off” in 2025 as consumer demand slows following several robust sales years.

“I think we’re looking pretty good. We’re pretty much on pace to have a similar year to last year,” he told this newspaper. “We do have some concerns. In our discussions, we spoke about market saturation because we had a couple of good years. 

“I guess that history teaches us that, typically, when you have a couple of good years you come to expect things to kind of taper off because the market is satisfied and you have to wait for vehicles to age more and people to pay off loans and come back into the market.

“That’s not scientific, and I haven’t seen it yet. Business is still really robust across the board. We’re cautiously optimistic and will be prepared for what is to come.” Industry sales figures for November and December 2024 are still awaited, but Ben Albury said he was confident BMDA members have collectively beaten full-year numbers for 2023.

“Up until October, we were very close to last year,” the BMDA chief disclosed. “Once we get all the figures in I think we will have slightly beaten 2023; not by any great margin, but by about 3-5 percent. That would be guessing without two months of sales.

“I know November was extremely good for us personally, and December levelled off slightly. It’s a shorter month and people have got trips and gifts going on. But November was very, very strong. For me it was probably the second best month of the year.

“I’m really excited to see what it ends up at once we get all the numbers in for November and December. I think it will easily surpass 2023. I don’t think it will be by any significant amount. Right now things are moving along very, very well, but based on our internal discussions we are being cautiously optimistic.”

Recalling the post-COVID surge experienced by auto dealers, Ben Albury said both 2022 and 2023 represented “dramatic” improvements over the prior year with the latter representing the best annual performance for 15 years since prior to the the global financial crisis and subsequent 2008-2009 recession

“Even if we did 5 percent more, 3 percent more, than we did in 2023 it’s still a huge accomplishment,” the BMDA president said of the industry’s 2024 performance. Let’s see what happens now the US election is over. That’s going to have some positive impact...

“Let’s hope the speculation on the saturation does not happen until next year, and maybe the economy is doing so well that it won’t slow down. Maybe the slow years we’ve had are catching up and people are ready to buy new vehicles.

“Financing is a huge factor in that. The banks are being aggressive and offering fantastic terms. The banks are lending, but some customers are experiencing a lot of red tape and frustration in getting everything in that they need. It’s still not as loose as it used to be.”