By PETER YOUNG 

The beginning of another year is a timely moment to take a look at the main trouble spots in the world after a notably significant series of international developments in 2024.

There are numerous conflicts going on like the civil war in Sudan and the never-ending ruthless fighting in Myanmar, not to mention the political struggle that has deteriorated into mayhem in South Korea. But the main ones in Ukraine and the Middle East have reached critical stages and affect global security the most. So it is worth examining the current situation in both while Taiwan is also a significant potential flashpoint and a major worry for the West.

There is currently a debate about the extent to which the complex and confusing web of conflicts is interconnected. The answer by most critics and commentators is that there is clearly an international dimension insofar as countries are lined up on both sides in support of the main protagonists in Ukraine and the Middle East. But this is not the third world war and the existing uncertainty and concern should not be exaggerated by labelling it as such since world leaders may allow themselves, almost inadvertently, to be drawn into an even deeper crisis that could spread further.

In the Ukraine war, which started, of course, nearly three years ago with Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February, 2022, Moscow has failed to take over the whole country after fighting about territory in the east since 2014 and annexing Crimea the same year. Russia’s decision to bring in to the conflict last year thousands of troops from North Korea was seen by the West as an escalation serious enough for the US and UK, and other Western countries, to lift their ban on Ukraine using the long-range missiles that they have supplied on targets deep inside Russia.

It is self-evident that Ukraine has depended on Western military aid and support – particularly from the US – to defend itself from the might of the Russian army that was intent on quickly subduing the whole country but failed to do so and which, in turn, has been receiving military aid from Iran in the shape of drones and, according to recent reports, ballistic missiles as well. Military experts assess that without the massive Western assistance it has received Ukraine would have been unable to hold off the Russian army for so long and that the war has now developed into one of attrition with the Russians gradually pushing forward in what appears to be an inexorable advance in the east.

As far as the Middle East is concerned, Western analysts say the complexities of the region mean that several conflicts are happening simultaneously. Israel has been fighting on various fronts: directly against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon (to clear Hezbollah from the border area and enable 60,000 Israelis to return to live in the north of their own country) as well as firing missiles at - and being attacked from - Iran, Yemen and Syria. But, despite the media reports from the current battle zones that give the appearance of a whole region in flames, most of it is not at war; for example, Saudi Arabia, which has disengaged from hostilities in Yemen, Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and, of course, Dubai in the UAE.

In Syria, reportedly, nobody seemed to anticipate the downfall last month of its long-serving president Bashar al-Assad, including his backers in Tehran and Moscow. In a matter of weeks, a coalition of Islamist rebels known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, US and UK, seized city after city until Assad was forced to flee the country leaving the group as Syria’s new rulers.

Analysts are now saying that one of the results of Israel’s uncompromising response to the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas is the devastating effect on Iran’s allies in the region who, together with a Russia that was preoccupied with Ukraine, failed to go to the aid of Assad. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been decimated by Israel – though, most recently, this group has been accused of not fully implementing November’s agreed ceasefire. Iran has also been weakened by watching how easily Israel’s warplanes have been able to penetrate its airspace in attacks in the autumn.

Meanwhile, the situation in Gaza remains nothing less than terrible. Today, well over a year into the war, much of the territory lies in ruins, with 44,000 Palestinians killed, the majority of whom were civilians, and more than a million people, out of a population of 2.4 million, displaced and living in miserable conditions. Numerous attempts to agree a ceasefire and the release of the remaining hostages have failed. Israel has vowed to eradicate Hamas as a military force and fighting is still going on, with devastating Israeli airstrikes continuing.

Looking back, for the Middle East in 2024 the major outcome seems to be that the balance of power has shifted dramatically in Israel’s favour and to Iran’s disadvantage. Gaza has been called the well-spring of the other conflicts. Israel has gone all out to “neutralise” its enemies by exchanging missile fire with Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. As a US ally, it will surely continue to receive massive amounts of aid from it and, interestingly but not unexpectedly, over the past weekend the press has reported that President Biden has notified Congress of a planned $8 billion weapons sale to Israel.

As for Ukraine, most analysts take the view that it is unlikely President Zelensky’s forces will be able to defeat Russia, but it appears that he has been preparing the ground for President-elect Trump’s involvement in a peace process and has come up with some ideas to end the war.

Finally, as regards the island of Taiwan, situated off the coast of mainland China and with a population of over 23 million, commentators are now saying that, although not a direct conflict at the moment, the danger of interference by China is as great as ever. The evidence is that Beijing under President Xi Jinping has vowed to “return” this successful self-governing democracy to the mainland, saying most recently that “no one can stop the reunification” with China. This is despite the fact that Taiwan has never been ruled by Beijing since the People’s Republic of China was created and came to power in 1949. But it has been reported that the president has said publicly that this “return” will be achieved before the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2049. It is well established that Taiwan, which has a pro-democracy president, does not want to be ruled by the CCP. So the big question is, if China invades or blockades the island, would the US come to its defence by committing American forces. This has the potential for a catastrophic conflict with huge global political and economic consequences.

In summary, it is said that 2024 may have been one of the most eventful years since the 9/11 attacks in 2001. It is also suggested that 2025 is likely to be similarly action-packed and momentous. So no one can deny that, against such a background of conflict on the world stage, the range of potential problems facing a new US President on the international front alone will be formidable.

DISMAL START FOR LABOUR GOVERNMENT

People in Britain are accustomed to believing their country is the world’s oldest democracy, though some historians say this claim depends on the criteria used and that this should be qualified as the oldest traditional democracy. This, we are told, ought to imply experienced, properly functioning and effective governance. But it is surprising to see what is happening in UK politics barely six months since a general election that resulted in a sweeping win for the Labour Party.

From a study of the UK press, it is clear that the new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is not faring as well as he should be with a massive majority despite a modest 34 percent share of the vote in a low turnout. Indeed, according to the polls, the government’s approval rating is alarmingly low, as is the level of public satisfaction with his own personal performance. Six out of ten people believe Starmer must do something to turn things around before it is too late. Nobody is claiming that there was anything wrong with the running of the election but people are complaining vociferously about the way the new government is functioning – even at this early stage – and, at the time of writing, there will be a debate in the House of Commons soon about a petition for another election.

Critics are saying that the PM is in trouble to the extent that some in the press scent an early collapse of the government. Others say that Starmer’s administration has shown itself to be more radical than his party manifesto suggested - and people anticipated - in bringing about change in Britain. With their huge majority, government ministers consider they have a mandate from the people and are determined to get things done efficiently and without delay.

A study of the UK press also reveals the recent extraordinary surge of popularity of the relatively newly formed political party called Reform UK. This is a right-wing populist party offering commonsense policies on issues like immigration, the cost of living and energy. But first what are the reasons for Starmer’s unpopularity?

There has been a catalogue of blunders already and Labour voters in particular feel let down by the new government. These range from issues like immigration and handling of the National Health Service to the removal of a winter fuel allowance from pensioners, imposition of VAT on private schools, a tax on farmers’ inheritance and widespread disapproval of an overly generous pay deal to striking train drivers. But the most serious in many people’s judgement is the corruption involved in taking individual donations and what are called in Britain “freebies” or acceptance of large gifts because of their political positions while so-called ordinary people are grappling with a cost-of-living crisis. The latter is not good for the image of a party promoting equality and transparency. Thus, Starmer and his colleagues are accused of poor public relations and of lacking political awareness.

There appear to be difficult times ahead and British politics looks to be in uncharted territory. So it might be worth examining the Reform Party more closely in a future column – to the extent that there is continuing local interest in current political developments in Britain which has always been seen as a fine example of the Westminster system of governance in practice.

REALITY OVERTAKES EXPECTATION

It is almost a truism that the greater the expectation and enthusiasm about something the greater the disappointment and hurt when it doesn’t happen. For some, this applies to celebration of the arrival of another year and hope for the future. They tend to be sceptical about the manufactured excitement involved in welcoming another calendar year when cold reality suggests it might well be worse than the previous one.

Imagine, then, the wretchedness, of waking up to the dismal news early on New Year’s Day of the horror of the deadly incident in New Orleans, committed barely two hours into 2025. The repetition of terrible violence and the loss of innocent lives was all too familiar and it induced yet again feelings of despair and depression in the realization that this sort of horror cannot be prevented and will never go away. But is there any hope that something can be done to lessen its incidence and mitigate its effects.

The perpetrator of the terrible action in New Orleans appeared to have been a disaffected, alienated individual unhappy with his own life. But, lacking a normal moral compass, he had no compunction about destroying the lives of others. Some will say that his preparations for his act of violence showed he knew exactly what he was doing and therefore he was sane. But such depravity indicates a seriously disturbed mind and there will be many more people around the country in a similar position. So should society not devise a more proactive way of dealing with the gradations of mental illness in a bid to preempt such violence?

People will say this is all too vague and nebulous, but it surely requires political leadership which may be lacking. So, perhaps hopes should not be raised - for fear of disappointment.