The Tribune

with CHARLIE HARPER

US president Donald Trump’s slavering appetite for Greenland and even Canada grows. Elections in Australia, Canada and Greenland focus on the American president as a central, if not determining, issue in these elections. His tariffs are scaring everyone.

What will curb Trump?

One liberal friend is certain he knows the answer. “It will be the stock market,” he asserted confidently. “If it falls, he will pull back. That’s what moves him.”

It’s true that the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained around 50 percent in value over the span of Trump’s first term. (It continued to rise, gaining another 33 percent under his successor Joe Biden.) And overall, the stock markets in the US have pushed slightly ahead in the early months of Trump’s second administration. He often boast about this.

So my liberal friend figures that when the stock exchanges inevitably correct to account for what he figures is an inevitable recession, the American president will pay attention and ease up on tariffs.

Just this week, on Monday the Dow Jones surged by over 600 points, reportedly on rumours that Trump was going to pump the brakes on several of his most dramatic tariff decisions and give the world’s economy some space to take a breath.

Meanwhile, the Trump tariffs have remained headline news in the capitals and commercial centres of America’s most prominent Asian allies. In Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney, there remain hopes for a satisfactory resolution of this troubling issue even as Trump’s mercurial, transactional approach gains momentum.

During the first Trump administration, Japan, South Korea and Australia all managed to negotiate much improved trade and tariff terms with the US. Hopes persist for a repeat performance, despite the president’s insistence that it won’t happen again. This trade is critical.

South Korea, for instance, is one of the five top steel and aluminum exporters to the US, selling $4.5 billion worth of steel and steel products and over $1 billion of aluminum products to the US last year. Japan shipped over $2 billion of steel products to America, and Australia sold 35 percent of its overall exports to the US.

Down under in Australia, the scene is emblematic of policy and political crises across the globe in the wake of Trump’s assertive nativist economic policy.

Australia is preparing for May elections to be called at any time now. Last month, a banner headline in The Australian declared “PM steels for Trump tariff test.” The Australian is the only nationally distributed newspaper in the country, owned by billionaire news mogul Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation, and generally tilts to the right politically.

Current Aussie Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who leads a liberal-leaning government, has been in The Australian’s crosshairs for months. Partly because of its emphasis on the tariff issue as a measure of Albanese’s leadership skills, the PM and Trump have stayed firmly in the headlines.

One columnist wrote that the tariff crisis “is going to require deeper engagement by Albanese. The Left will be appalled if the prime minister grovels before Trump. The country will be appalled if he fails. Albanese’s risk is that he may fail at both.”

One of the prime minister’s predecessors urged him, in dealing with Trump, to “argue Australia’s case without sucking up.” Another columnist wrote that “the PM is facing a diplomatic minefield here – it could so easily blow up in his face.

“The biggest risk is that Trump has become so enamoured with tariffs as an instrument of policy that he is willing to levy them across the board indiscriminately, regardless of merit, thereby hitting all countries – including close allies – which export steel and aluminum into the US.”

Albanese, like political leaders throughout the world facing Trump’s seemingly whimsical policy decisions, vows to stand strong even as he faces economic headwinds heading into the upcoming general election.

“Australian people know I will always stand up for them and stand up for Australia’s national interest,” he asserts.

Meanwhile, north of the US border in Canada, political advertisements are saturating Toronto radio and television stations. Many focus on which candidate and party can best withstand Trump’s economic and political imperialism.

The BBC reported on the upcoming general election in this way:

“Voters will consider which party should govern the country just as the US - its neighbour and largest economic partner - launches a trade war and President Donald Trump muses about making Canada the 51st US state.

“Domestic issues like housing and immigration will still be important, of course, but for the first time in decades, Canadians will also be grappling with fundamental questions about the country’s future when they head to the ballot box on 28 April.”

A political strategist and policy director for former Liberal Party prime minister Justin Trudeau told the BBC that “it is impossible to overstate the impact of the president’s actions on Canadian politics, on Canadian psyche, on Canadian business.”

The BBC commentary continued. “Trump’s interventions have already reshaped politics in Canada, helping transform what seemed like a certain Conservative victory into a too-close-to-call battle with the Liberals.

“And on Sunday, as campaigning began, all the party leaders focused their launch messages heavily on the US threats.”

Trump will be relishing his predominant role in the upcoming Canadian general election. His antipathy toward Justin Trudeau, an elitist left-leaning politician who has publicly snickered at Trump for years, is well known. Many commentators figured Trump would favour the opposition Conservative candidate.

But not necessarily. Trump has already started to make his views on the election known. He told Fox News host Laura Ingraham last week that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is “stupidly, no friend of mine” and that it may be “easier to deal actually with a Liberal.” Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney is the Liberal candidate.

Canada is crucial as global warming has created a new political, economic and strategic battleground in the Arctic. As polar ice melts, activists worry about the future of polar bears and native peoples, and strategists ponder how best position their nations to take advantage of this rapidly evolving phenomenon, Trump has thrust the US into the center of all relevant discourse on the region.

He continues to comment on a potential annexation of neighbouring Canada as what he calls a “51st state”. Canada of course consists of ten provinces, including Ontario with 40 percent of the nation’s population and Quebec with its largest land mass, plus three so-called ‘territories’ in the far north and northwest of the country.

But with a total population of 35 million, Canada is placed midway between the largest (California) and second most (Texas) populous American states. Most Canadians also live quite close to the US border.

Usha Vance, the brilliant wife of the US vice president, meanwhile, has announced that she and one of her kids are planning a visit to Greenland to watch a dog-sled race and partake of various other aspects of the culture of the world’s largest island (Australia, four times the size of Greenland, doesn’t count as an island because it’s a continent).

No one believes this is a coincidence. Trump’s son visited earlier this year. Trump makes no secret of coveting Greenland’s reputed wealth of rare earth and other precious minerals thought to be essential for future technological advancements. The island’s strategic importance will only accelerate as the polar ice cap recedes.

Greenland, like Australia and Canada will soon do, has staged general elections this year. Some political polling was done in connection with the elections, and the American National Public Radio issued this report about Greenlander attitudes:

“An opinion poll published in January showed that an overwhelming number of Greenlanders favour independence. The survey showed that 84 percent wanted independence from Denmark, while 45 percent said they only want it if it doesn’t hurt their standard of living. Only nine percent said they didn’t want full independence from Denmark and just six percent were in favour of becoming a US state.

“A key message from the recent general election vote is directed at Trump, according to a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for Strategic Studies: ‘If [he] had any idea that his invitations and threats … would be welcomed … he’s done himself a disservice.’ Instead, the researcher says, the results indicate that Greenlanders are pushing away and are actually becoming more reluctant to engage with the US.”