The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Major resorts are forecasting a 5-10 percent year-over-year revenue increase for Easter and the remainder of the peak winter tourism season, it was revealed yesterday, amid optimism The Bahamas will “find a way through” the fall-out from the Middle East conflict.

Robert Sands, Baha Mar’s senior vice-president of government and external affairs, told Tribune Business that “forward bookings through Easter are very strong” despite the growing uncertainties associated with the war between the US and Israel and Iran. He added that there has been no “indication to-date” that the conflict, and its likely economic impacts, have affected bookings for Bahamian vacations.

Energy and transportation costs are among the sectors likely to be most impacted, due to crude oil prices spiking to $103 per barrel on Friday, with average jet fuel prices rising 58.4 percent last week to $157.41 per barrel according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). However, Mr Sands said The Bahamas’ proximity to the US - its main tourist source market, accounting for 90 percent of visitors - means it will likely “not be hit as hard” by any surge in airline ticket prices.

And he acknowledged that the continued growth of cruise tourism, which generated some 10.6m visitors in 2025, is “another benefit to The Bahamas at this point in time” because it will further help insulate this nation’s largest economic driver and jobs source from the effects of a prolonged Middle East conflict that may last for some weeks yet.

Mr Sands told this newspaper that New Providence’s resorts have enjoyed a strong 2026 winter season thus far, with revenues driven largely by solid room rates with occupancy levels flat to slightly ahead of 2025 comparatives. “They are very strong results, not only for Baha Mar but most of the major hotels for New Providence,” he said of January’s industry performance and “semi-official” figures for February.

“March remains very robust, and forward bookings through Easter are very strong. There are different dynamics that contribute to the results. Revenue is up, which is the product mostly of rates, and occupancies being very stable or slightly up. Most hotels are in a stabilised position and this is the height of the winter season, so there is not much wiggle room in terms of occupancy.”

Asked about Bahamian tourism’s prospects for Easter and the remainder of the 2026 winter season, Mr Sands added: “That’s always traditionally a very strong period. We’re going to see growth - slight amounts in occupancy, and reasonable amounts in revenue. The bottom line is revenue, and we should see revenues increase over last year - on average, from 5-10 percent. We have an extended winter period because Easter is in April.”

Mr Sands voiced optimism that Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) decision to hedge, or lock-in, the price of two million oil barrels at around $70 in December 2025 may mitigate the worst impacts from an oil price shock on Bahamian energy costs in the near-term, adding: “We’ll see how far that takes us.”

As for airlines potentially hiking air fare costs to offset surging fuel prices, thus impacting access costs and potentially pricing travellers out of visiting The Bahamas, Mr Sands argued: “In terms of having some stability with the price of tickets increasing, the current indicators are that it’s very likely that destinations like The Bahamas - I don’t want to use the word benefit - may not be hit as hard as other countries because of our proximity and visitors travelling shorter distances.

“I’ve not had any indication to-date those dynamics are impacting booking trends. The new normal is travelling shorter distances, and The Bahamas as a two-and-a-half hour air travel destination [from major US source markets] captures a significant amount of market share in terms of tourism to the Caribbean.

“The other issue, which is something I don’t like to talk about, is that the cruise business continues to grow, and that’s a dynamic of proximity, distance and time. That’s another benefit to The Bahamas at this point in time.”

Other Bahamian resort operators, while voicing concern over the likely economic consequences of the Middle East conflict, nevertheless expressed confidence that this nation’s largest industry will find a way through.

Ben Simmons, the Bahamian developer and entrepreneur behind the boutique Little Island Hotels’ group on Harbour Island and Eleuthera, acknowledged the likely cost and inflationary pressures coming from increased crude oil prices but asserted that the resort industry will be able to adjust its room rates and pricing accordingly.

“Of course that’s going to be a concern,” Mr Simmons said. “It’s already expensive to get here and Harbour Island is already an expensive place. But we’ve kind of been here before. I don’t know if it’s different this time. We’ve gone through oil spikes and, provided the country doesn’t shut down, we have to make it work for everybody by lowering rates and price adjustments in other ways.

“I’d say I’m worried but optimistic. We’ll find a way through. I truly think that, provided the world doesn’t lock down again like it did in COVID, there will still be a fundamental need to travel and get away from the pressures of the world and, when there’s more uncertainty, the persons that can afford to do it will do it.

“If occupancies are low, prices can drop. If prices rise too high, we can make the adjustments on room rates,” Mr Simmons added. “I fundamentally believe we’re here to provide a service to look after people when the going gets tough, and when they want to get away, we’re here. It’s like a bubble outside the chaos. There’s still a fundamental need for that.”

Mr Simmons said the weddings market, a strong component for his Ocean View and The Other Side properties, has proven to be relatively inelastic “even in COVID. There was demand for smaller weddings and just to get away. I think that market will not go away”.

The Bahamian aviation industry, meanwhile, is bracing for a near-term fuel price spike. This newspaper was told that aviation fuel prices at Jet Nassau, the fixed base operator (FBO), have already increased by between 10 to 15 cents per gallon since the Iran conflict started, and operators are now starting to receive “much more frequent fuel price revisions”.

One operator, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “Jet fuel is far more sensitive. If oil goes from $50 per barrel to $100 per barrel, jet fue won’t double - it will triple. It’s more sensitive to changes in crude oil prices and it’s not a linear change. I’m sure everybody will complain, but they are typically interested far too late.

“In this instance the jet operators will be impacted more than the turbo prop operators, because their consumption is higher - particularly on shorter routes where the time component does not offset that. If Bahamasair is flying its 737 jets to Freeport and Exuma, for example, that will have a much higher cost impact than if it used its ATRs.

“If oil prices stay at $100 per barrel for longer, and up to $150, it will not just be local carriers but international ones. If the fuel price stays high for a long time, the shorter routes those jets fly or the less-densely populated ones, the ticket prices will go up or they will cut back. The Bahamas’ exposure on that side is on the fees and frequency from foreign operators.”

Anthony Hamilton, president of the Bahamas Association of Air Transport Operators, told Tribune Business that the timing of any increased aviation fuel prices will depend on when existing stocks or inventory already purchased - and in transit to this nation - is exhausted. He confirmed that local operators and carriers have already discussed the likely impact, and possible need to raise ticket prices, as he warned the oil price fall-out will be felt “straight across the board” beyond aviation.

“The aviation industry operates with a slim margin. There’s no way that we’re not experiencing an impact with it,” Mr Hamilton said of the potential fuel price spike. “Once it comes down the channel, we have to respond to it. It’s a matter of responding to the data, but we have it in the back of our minds anyway that it creates an increase in the price of tickets. It’s a domino effect.”

He added that “the ability of persons to travel” could be impacted depending on how much airline ticket prices have to increase to offset any rise in fuel costs, while another factor is “what measures the Government may take to soften the blow”.

“The potential is a real potential,” Mr Hamilton added. “We all have to monitor and pivot as needed so we can have some kind of sustainable means of carrying the industry.” He added that aviation operator margins are as low as 2-3 percent, and called for all industry stakeholders to be involved in crafting a strategy to “weather this situation”.

“Collectively we have a responsibility to survive it, and not get dragged down to the extent that persons downsize and get out of the business. These are the realities,” Mr Hamilton said. “It can flip on a dime, but we know based on what has taken place that there’s a fall-out to come.

“We don’t know what that is at this juncture, but we expect it to happen. We can have a uniform response, or an erratic, ad hoc response, but it pays to have stakeholder engagement to determine how to respond.”