By TANYA SMITH-CARTWRIGHT
tsmith-cartwright@tribunemedia.net
WITH more than 1,300 confirmed cases of COVID in the country, health professionals are busy deciphering if the latest numbers should be attributed to a backlog of tests or if they are new cases.
According to an official, health experts hope to clear that backlog by next week.
As of Tuesday, New Providence alone had 731 confirmed cases.
Director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Diseases Programme at the Ministry of Health, Dr Nikkiah Forbes said there are labs assisting with national COVID testing and clearing the backlog.
“Yes, we are in the process of gathering that data,” Dr Forbes said Monday. “So you would have heard that we have a backlog of cases in the lab, some of which have been run and all the labs involved in the national testing process are assisting (Ministry of) Health to clear that backlog and that is still occurring.
“So as we get this information, we will have to analyse the date of the sample, when it was taken and when samples arrived in the lab. So that we can determine if this is an increase in the reported cases because the cases are being reported day to day as we get those positive results. So we are in the process of analysing that data still. Some of those tests include the backlog, but we haven’t finished and formalised that process.”
The country entered a two week lockdown on August 4, however some islands have seen restrictions lifted since then. New Providence, however, was placed under an additional seven day lockdown Monday night, with even stricter measures.
Grand Bahama has also seen its lockdown extended by seven days.
Dr Forbes said recommendations for such restrictive measures are based on the following criteria.
“When it comes to scientific recommendations for curfews and lockdowns based upon what is happening, in terms of the outbreak in the country,” Dr Forbes said. “So if cases are increasing, not decreasing, if we are seeing in our hospital system cases that are presenting and hospital capacity is threatened then it’s often necessary to continue prevention measures and restrictive measures to try and reduce ongoing transmission of COVID-19.”
Dr Forbes said the results of lockdowns are not felt right away.
“What I need us to appreciate is that the effect of these lockdowns will not be seen immediately,” she said Monday. “It depends upon the virology of the virus that you are dealing with. This particular virus, we know the incubation period, on average, is about five to seven days but it can be up to 14 days. That means that people who say the lockdown started on August (4) – that was not quite 14 days ago.
“People who were exposed before that period will be presenting to the healthcare system now. And, certainly those people who were exposed at the closer end to when the lockdown started, may continue to be in a pre-symptomatic phase and present later on. So it’s not instantaneous that you will see the results of a so-called lockdown.”
Comments
thps 3 years, 8 months ago
If we can't see the results of the lockdown until later how do we judge the effect of this 7-day adventure come Sunday? What metrics will he use?
tell_it_like_it_is 3 years, 8 months ago
Yes, it's so silly. How can you make decisions based on old data? You are only setting up yourself for failure!
But the bigger issue is, how is it that the PM can't figure these things out for himself? For instance the 7 days without notice... do you really need consultants to tell you it doesn't make sense? It boggles the mind. SMH
ohdrap4 3 years, 8 months ago
The time has come when the talk show loonies make more sense than the doctors.
Save your face, doctor. Stop the charade.
whogothere 3 years, 8 months ago
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...">https://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemar...">https://www.forbes.com/sites/gracemar...
TalRussell 3 years, 8 months ago
It is what it is! If my calculations are accurate then no need be checking to see If new cases are part of the mounting backlog The Colony's COVID-19 tests - regardless, the COVID killer virus has now spread worldwide to 215 countries and as of August 18, 2020, statistically per population, The Colony's COVID-19 deaths are equal to that of the USA. Nod Once for Yeah, Twice for No?
birdiestrachan 3 years, 8 months ago
According to the PM these are the people who are telling him to stop people from receiving their medication or buying food. but allow construction workers to work.
There are losing their credibility quickly
joeblow 3 years, 8 months ago
So they are making decisions without the information they need to make decisions? Only in the Bahamas!
hj 3 years, 8 months ago
They have even admitted they have a serious backlog. Yet they make decisions affecting everyone's life. Are these people for real?
ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago
are they reading the Tribune comments?
Amused 3 years, 8 months ago
Idiots with degrees who lack basic common sense. The stupidity of ppl in top positions or positions for that matter is so sad
hj 3 years, 8 months ago
One of the "medical experts" said that he does not understand why the lines at the foodstore are so long. As you stated " idiots with degrees".
ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago
theyre not idiots, theyre out of touch. None of them had to worry about losing their job, missing a pay cheque, not having food in the cupboard, being locked in for weeks and on and on. This entire period for them has been a breeze..other than being grilled by reporters and getting on Dr Minnis bad side
ohdrap4 3 years, 8 months ago
Years ago, I worked with a doctor graduate of top universities and an expert in his area.
His business decisions were horrendous mainly because he did not take into consideration the fabric of the clientele.
When the sheet hit the fan, I remember the janitor saying: isn't he so brilliant? He must be an idiot savant.
There it is, all these doctors have to do is look around them and chat with their patients and their subordinate staff. There they will find the people who struggle to make ends meet.
They can never understand those who buy kraft macaroni one box at a time, or take only half of the prescription because that is all they have.
That makes them idiot savants.
ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago
I'd still say they're not idiots. This doctor you speak of was not an administrator he should have hired a general manager to look after the running of the business and stuck to his whatever it was he did medically. In that role he would shine. When he tried to do the other thing, he was a fish out of water. There are doctors who have that administration skill and their role is to run the operation not so much see patients. The doctor's failing was in trying to do something he was not good at. For a long time I've believed that Hubert Minnis falls in this category. He can look after babies just fine, but he is a horrible administrator. only this time his failings will sink an entire country not just one business
I also think as citizens we've had our eyes closed. Many if us have given Dr Minnis a pass because, he's a doctor! Look how God has blessed us with a doctor to lead our nation! And thd statement is literally based on no evidence that he has any administrative skills. I think Dr Minnis knows he's not an administrator I believe that's why he didnt take a portfolio. He's been around once already and knows he's not up to it. Ego seems to have gotten him on this crisis management
ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago
Ok since they're reading the comments for ideas on how to analyze the data.... We need the breakdown of the number of tests completed by island and then we need to see the age of the tests I suppose you can break that down into week intervals. Need to see this analysis from July 1. And we need to see it everytine They report numbers going firward. Were there 2 positives in GB because they only tested 2 people? 95 in NP because They tested 200 people? They have the data, they know when they collected the sample they know when they did the test. we also need to see cluster data, we need to see a report on the number of persons quarantined and the calls made to them. If they locking us down with crazy restrictions we should at least know if they doing the work to make lockdowns as short as possible and ultimately unnecessary
ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago
and don't just tell us 1000 calls were made. I want to see a classification of persons...maybe by cluster and their distance from the contact, we need to see if the call was answered or not and we need to see the calls by week. It would also be good to see the number of persons living with the contact, how many of those persons were tested and if they tested positive. Another break down could add the ages of persons living with contacts, since we know the virus is spreading faster through home contact, analyzing this should be critical. Oddly we haven't seen any reporting on it to date. A person living with elderly people should be removed post haste for example and someone assigned to ensure the elderly person is ok while the younger individual is in quarantine.
They really should pull Dr Morris in, there's clearly a reason behind them shutting him out I dont know if it's justified or not, but we dying and the man talking sense. I'd say not dying is more important than any skeleton in his closet...
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