The Tribune

• Could finish year at 70-75% of pre-COVID volumes

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Family Island resorts are “expecting” business for the November-December period to be 10 percent above 2019 levels, an industry executive saying: “The needle is moving in the right direction.”

Kerry Fountain, the Bahamas Out Islands Promotion Board’s executive director, told Tribune Business that should such projections come true it would ensure its 35 member hotels exceeded room revenue and room nights sold targets for the full-year that were set at the beginning of 2021.

The Promotion Board and its members had aimed to reach room revenue and room nights sold levels that were 65 percent of what was achieved in 2019, but he disclosed that they could collectively achieve 70-75 percent for both indicators if Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year forecasts prove accurate.

“We have the airlift, and are seeing the needle move in the right direction for room revenues and room nights sold,” Mr Fountain told this newspaper. “We cannot eliminate COVID-19, but we can mitigate it.

“All I know, based on the tea leaves and based on the actual performance for January to October from all members, it now looks like specifically for October to December, on average we’re projecting the numbers to grow even in those two months by another 5-6 percent.

“It possibly can go above 70-75 percent in room revenue and room nights sold for 2021 versus 2019. If that is the case, then a lot of the staff members that are furloughed will be brought back to work.”

Mr Fountain explained that he has already received indications that furloughed Out Island resort workers are being recalled after the Promotion Board’s member properties inquired whether these persons can be included in its COVID-19 vaccination incentives.

“Right now, we know we did 65 percent for January through October,” he reiterated of average room nights sold and room revenues compared to 2019. “If you look at the November to December period, we’re expecting an additional 10 percent growth, which means that will bring us up to 70-75 percent of what we did for the full year in 2019.”

Mr Fountain, though, said he “must also temper” such optimism due to the tightened US border entry protocols designed to cope with COVID-19’s new Omicron variant. The Biden administration has narrowed the window in which returning US citizens, who make up 90 percent of The Bahamas’ tourists, must obtain a negative COVID test from within 72 hours to 24 hours before departure.

“There has been a lull in new reservations because of uncertainty over Biden’s announcement,” the Out Island Promotion Board’s executive director said. “Folks are waiting: It is a rapid antigen test, which we believe it will be, or a PCR test.”

Mr Fountain said the Promotion Board’s data was based on room night and revenue data provided by around 60 percent of its member hotels at the end of every month. He added that, despite September and October being traditionally slow months, the sector was “exactly on target” for the January-October period with projections that both indicators will be 65 percent of 2019 levels.

And some islands fared even better. While properties in Abaco would have seen no business in September and October 2019 due to Hurricane Dorian-related devastation, thus skewing the comparisons somewhat, Mr Fountain said Promotion Board member properties were 176 percent and 184 percent ahead, respectively, on room nights sold and revenue compared to that year.

“Islands like Eleuthera. In terms of room nights sold, Eleuthera is at 84 percent of what it did in 2019 for room nights sold, and 85 percent of what it did on room revenues,” he added. “Harbour Island was 89 percent and 94 percent, respectively.”

To remove fluctuations caused by Promotion Board members leaving, and different ones joining, Mr Fountain said it had also done comparisons between numbers for hotels that were with it in both 2019 and 2021.

“When you look at the hotels in 2019 and compare them to the same hotels we had in 2021, we’re still seeing that 65 percent for room nights sold and room revenue,” he explained. “The same hotels collectively are achieving that.”

Mr Fountain, though, acknowledged that the tourism industry and hotels on islands such as Cat Island and San Salvador (the latter grappling with Club Med’s closure) continue to “struggle”. He suggested this was largely because of inconsistent airlift, with flight frequency as low as two to three days per week.

However, he added that travel trends and visitor desires continue to favour the Family Islands due to their lack of crowds and natural social distancing. “Talking to our Trip Advisor colleagues, they are continuing to see the trend of visitors wanting to visit new destinations and, particularly, destinations that offer elbow room, which is what we do in abundance in the Out Islands of The Bahamas,” Mr Fountain said.

“The Out Islands mainly offer a getaway from it all and an authentic, genuine experience. We don’t have to do anything. God blessed us with that and, factoring in our proximity, you don’t have to travel far to find a place you have never been before. 

“It’s uncrowded, it’s untroubled, authentic. If you’re looking for something new, why fly beyond us is beyond us.”