The Tribune

By RASHAD ROLLE

Tribune Senior Reporter

rrolle@tribunemedia.net

ONLY 23 percent of Seabreeze residents and 22 percent of St Barnabas residents believe the country is going in the right direction, according to a new survey that shows the majority of residents in those constituencies are also unsure about who they will support in the next general election.

A copy of the survey’s results is contained in a newsletter that Open Current – a strategic communications and public engagement firm – sent to its clients. The newsletter was leaked to The Tribune yesterday by one of the firm’s clients.

The survey results come amid anticipation that Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis may call an early election. However, some observers believe the rising COVID-19 cases may disrupt whatever early election plans Dr Minnis might have. The Tribune understands the Free National Movement cancelled a rally scheduled for this week because of the COVID-19 situation. Dr Minnis, meanwhile, is expected to address the country tonight.

Open Current said it conducted door-to-door surveys between July 9 and July 15, surveying 409 residents in Seabreeze and 391 residents in St Barnabas.

Asked why these constituencies were chosen, Joey Gaskins, a senior partner for the firm, said the company wanted two constituencies that were different.

“We thought they were different in a number of ways so we can compare results, some of which we find interesting,” he said.

“These two constituencies have different political histories and different socio-economic profiles. A lot of the work we do is looking at how demographics affect certain perspectives. We thought the demographics in these constituencies were not extreme in their difference, but different enough to provide valuable insights.”

The newsletter said: “Only 23 percent of Seabreeze residents and 22 percent of St Barnabas residents believed that the country was going in the right direction. Overwhelmingly it seems residents of both constituencies think the country is going in the wrong direction – 54 percent for Seabreeze and a whopping 70 percent for St Barnabas. These results are even starker when we look at age and specifically 18 to 35 year olds who represent the largest voting bloc. In each instance, this age group polled above the average wrong direction numbers with 60 percent of 18-35 year olds in Seabreeze and 70 percent in St Barnabas saying the country is going in the wrong direction.”

“We also asked about whether voters had decided preferences for a party or a party leader. In Seabreeze, only 22 percent of residents said they had a clear preference for a party or party leaders, while 40 percent had absolutely no idea and 26 percent had no idea whom they would vote for but knew for sure whom they wouldn’t vote for. These numbers looked different in St Barnabas where 34 percent of residents already knew which party or leader they would vote for, while 18 percent had no idea and 35 percent were uncertain about whom they would vote for but knew precisely who they wouldn’t be voting for.”

According to the survey, job opportunities were the top priority of 45 percent of Seabreeze residents, health care was the top priority of 39 percent of them and economic growth topped the list for 37 percent of them. Among St Barnabas residents, employment and job opportunities were the most important thing for 63 percent of residents while economic growth and healthcare were the most important priorities for 58 percent and 39 percent of residents respectively.

Mr Gaskins emphasised that Open Current’s newsletter is not a political one. He said results from all the questions residents were asked were not included in the letter.

“As it relates to the other questions, we would answer questions about those to our clients on the phone but we would not put it in writing,” he said. “They provide a lot of value insofar as strategic information that people who are not paying us should not benefit from and secondly this is not a political newsletter. If our clients are curious about some of the other stuff, we’re happy to answer and walk them through that.”

Mr Gaskins said Open Current used sound methodology for its survey.

“Every time we go out and do research, even if it’s internal, we are very particular about the type of methodology we employ,” he said. “

The sample size for the two constituencies are comparable to some of the conversations around national polls that have been happening recently. This data is weighed so that it is representative. Door-to-door surveys remove some of the biases that you can see through other types of polling, particularly online polling. This poll was not conducted over a long period of time where people’s opinions can change because of particular events like changes in lockdown measures or the revelation of a budget. It is a pretty accurate snapshot of public opinion in these constituencies.”

Open Current’s survey comes after an FNM internal poll showed Dr Minnis leading Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) Leader Philip “Brave” Davis in approval ratings. According to poll results, which The Tribune reported last week, 54 percent of Bahamians approve of Dr Minnis while 37 percent disapprove of him; 24 percent of Bahamians approve of Mr Davis while 47 percent disapprove. Dr Minnis is said to be buoyed by the poll results and the FNM plans to put the leadership battle between him and Mr Davis at the front and centre of their election campaign.