The Tribune

AND so the long wait for an answer about the National Insurance fund is over. Or at least in part.

Now we know when something will be done about the fund – after Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis announced there will be an increase in the rate on July 1 next year.

Unlike the spectacle of Budget day, when the Prime Minister led a cohort of political colleagues across Rawson Square in the traditional photo opportunity, and when Mr Davis rose in Parliament before cameras to address the nation, this piece of good news arrived with little ceremony.

It arrived in a statement just one page long. No recordings of anyone making the announcement, so it cannot play on social media alongside Mr Davis’ previous announcement of no increase in taxes for this Budget. To paraphrase an old saying, good news has many fathers, bad news is an orphan.

Now for what we do not know. There is no indication in the Prime Minister’s statement of how much the rate increase will be.

In his statement, Mr Davis said: “We hope that a full year’s advance notice will allow all impacted the time to plan to accommodate the increase.”

Without knowing what the increase will be, it is hard to do any meaningful planning.

The FNM were swift to respond to the Prime Minister’s statement, pointing out the absence of further information in the statement.

Party leader Michael Pintard said: “No doubt they have already decided on the rate and the measures required to secure and sustain the fund – the Prime Minister can save us all the trouble and be transparent in sharing the details.”

The scale of the increase in income is simple enough to calculate – so the government will know what change of income will be needed to make the fund safe.

We know, from what we have been told, that the fund is losing around $6m a month. That’s how much more has to be balanced out in terms of increased revenue or reduced costs. It’s also, if we are waiting another year before a change in the rate, an extra $72m off the fund’s total.

Mr Davis says there will also be “significant reform” to make the system “more efficient and more user-friendly”. Again, no mention of what that reform might be – or how it might affect the target the government has to reach to save the fund.

The Prime Minister also added: “To those who worry that a delay will make the eventual increase larger than it otherwise would have been, we can assure you that will not be the case.”

Maybe so, Mr Davis, but it will certainly take the increase longer to claw back that extra $72m from a year’s delay.

For the news to come on the eve of the Budget debate also takes eyes off what was otherwise a Budget the Prime Minister was trumpeting as a good thing – even if the claims of no increases or new taxes did not quite stand up to analysis.

And so we wait for more information. Until then, no true planning can take place. Worse, businesses will perhaps plan for a situation that may be worse than the actual rise – and hold off on investing in anticipation of dealing with greater costs.

We cannot wait too long if we are to truly prepare. Mr Davis, we hope you will be more forthcoming – and soon.