The Tribune

BY NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE BAHAMAS’ trade deficit increased by $80m year-over-year during the 2026 first quarter due to a slight decrease in exports combined with a 6.4 percent rise in imports.

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI), in unveiling the foreign trade statistics for the three months to end-March 2026, disclosed that the deficit - which measures by how much this nation’s goods imports exceed the exports it sells into other nations - had increased from $1.005bn during the same period last year to $1.085bn.

The expanded first quarter deficit, which has been revealed just as Bahamian exports come under further pressure from the Trump administration’s 12.5 percent tariff, was generated by a modest 2 percent decline in exports coupled with a $76m, or 6.4 percent, jump in foreign goods imported into this nation.

The Bahamian economy’s structure, which results in this nation importing most of what it consumes, means it has always traditionally incurred large trade deficits. These, though, only capture the trade in goods and do not include the large surplus generated by the primarily service-based economy and its tourism, financial services, real estate and construction industries.

But, while services-related foreign currency inflows finance and cover the trade deficit, the latter’s increasing size means that earnings from the likes of tourism and financial services are coming under growing pressure to expand at the same pace to sustain this. However, others have argued that increased imports are a sign of a healthy economy represented by growing demand and increased activity.

“The value of merchandise trade into The Bahamas totalled $1.3bn during the first quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 6.4 percent compared with the corresponding quarter of 2025,” the Statistical Institute’s report said.

“In the first quarter of 2026, ‘machinery and transport equipment’ was the largest import commodity group, with imports valued at $319m, accounting for 25 percent of total imports. This was followed by ‘food and live animals’, valued at $223m (18 percent), and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials’, valued at $197m (15.5 percent). Collectively, these three commodity groups accounted for 58 percent of the merchandise imports.

“Other significant import commodity groups included ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’, valued at $170m; ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ at $144m; and ‘chemicals’ valued at $85m. Together, these commodity groups accounted for 31 percent of total merchandise imports during the first quarter of 2026,” it added.

“Compared with the first quarter of 2025, ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’ and ‘chemicals’ recorded declines of 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. In contrast, all other major import commodity groups recorded increases over the same period.”

Turning to exports, which are goods that Bahamian producers sell in foreign markets such as the US, the Statistical Institute said: “During the first quarter of 2026, the value of total merchandise exports - domestic exports and re-exports - from The Bahamas was $187m, representing a decrease of 2 percent ($3.6m) compared with the first quarter of 2025.

“The largest export commodity groups were ‘machinery and transport equipment’, valued at $65m (35 percent); ‘mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials’, at $43m (23 percent); and ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials’, valued at $31m (17 percent) of total exports. Collectively, these three commodity groups accounted for 74 percent of total merchandise exports during the quarter.

“Compared with the first quarter of 2025, ‘miscellaneous manufactured articles’ and ‘chemicals’ each recorded declines by 64 percent and 63.7 percent, respectively, while ‘manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials’ decreased by 42 percent.”