The Tribune

By EARYEL BOWLEG

Tribune Staff Reporter

ebowleg@tribunemedia.net

THE Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below average this year, with one international forecast projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Chief Meteorological Officer Orson Nixon said the season is being shaped by a transition from a weak La Niña toward El Niño conditions.

“Right now, we're moving in from a weak La Niña season going into El Niño situation where you're looking at it being more to strong, but that is going to have most of its effect across the Caribbean,” he said. “Now, the thing is, The Bahamas is right on the fringe.”

However, Mr Nixon warned that warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, currently rising to about 30 degrees Celsius, could still fuel dangerous storms.

“Now this could actually, if a system do fall, could cause rapid intensification,” he said. “This season is going to be a representation of a very complex battle between the atmospheric suppression brought on by El Niño and also the fuel of the warm surface temperatures.”

Colorado State University recently forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

That projection is lower than the university’s forecast last year, which called for 17 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of which could become major hurricanes.

Mr Nixon noted that one of last year’s major hurricanes was Hurricane Melissa, which devastated Jamaica.

Despite the below-average forecast, he warned residents to remain alert, saying even one powerful storm could pose a serious threat.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.