The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE BAHAMAS could enjoy up to a $348m boost in annual economic output within a decade if it fully harnesses artificial intelligence’s (AI) potential, a study released yesterday forecast, although it ranks poorly on digital training for young people and data gaps.

The Ayre Index, launched at the recent Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Antigua & Barbuda by a think-tank bearing the same name, ranked The Bahamas 30th out of the group’s 56 member nations over how prepared its youth are to harness the opportunities presented by AI and rapidly-evolving technologies.

This nation was among the 41 nations currently rated as below the necessary AI readiness benchmark, scoring 44.7 out of 100, which placed it below the likes of Trinidad & Tobago; Fiji; Nigeria; Ghana; Jamaica; Kenya; Uganda; and Antigua and Barbuda. However, The Bahamas’ middle-of-the-pack ranking still kept it ahead of Barbados and most Caribbean rivals.

The Ayre Think Tank, founded by Canadian-Antiguan entrepreneur, Calvin Ayre, said in a statement that The Bahamas ranked especially poorly on the education and training necessary to prepare its young population, estimated as 89,175-strong and more than one in five citizens, scoring only ‘two out of ten’.

It acknowledged, though, that this was due to lack of, and access to, data on which to base its findings as only three of multiple indicators assessed were available for The Bahamas when it came to AI training of its young people. The study, branded as a ‘white paper’, also conceded that “much else remains unknown” in regard to The Bahamas as this nation has the greatest data gap of all 56 Commonwealth states.

Nevertheless, drawing on International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank assessment methods, the Ayre Think Tank estimated that getting AI right could expand The Bahamas’ annual economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP), by between a “conservative $111m” or “optimistic $348m” within ten years. The “moderate”, or likeliest scenario if this nation truly harnesses and adapts to AI, was pegged at an annual $230m GDP increase.

“Artificial intelligence could make The Bahamas' economy $230 million larger after ten years,” the Ayre Think Tank said in a statement. “The potential economic benefits are significant. The Bahamas has approximately 89,000 young people aged 15 to 29.

“Using estimates developed by the International Monetary Fund, researchers calculate that AI could make the country's economy $230m larger after ten years. The figure ranges from $111m under the most conservative scenario to $348m under the most optimistic.”

It confirmed that its index ranks “The Bahamas 30th out of 56 member states for the conditions that help young people benefit from artificial intelligence. It scores 44.7 out of 100, below the study’s readiness benchmark of 53. Only 15 Commonwealth countries reach that level.

“The Bahamas has relatively strong digital infrastructure. Electricity access is universal, 4G networks cover 95 percent of the population and an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) estimate puts Internet use at 92.5 percent of the population. These advantages help the country score an impressive 8.2 out of 10 for meaningful access,” the Ayre Think Tank added.

But it then remarked on “how little is known about young Bahamians' actual experience of AI. The Bahamas has the highest weighted Data Gap index score in the Commonwealth, at 78.5 out of 100, with qualifying information missing for 78 of the study's 111 measures. Researchers could not establish reliable scores for young people's digital capability, actual AI use or confidence in the technology,” it said.

“Education, though, emerges as a particular concern. The Bahamas scores two out of ten for education and training provision, although this assessment is based on just three measures rather than a complete picture of the country's education system.

“In 2024, some 11 percent of young Bahamians in the labour force were unemployed, while an International Labour Organisation estimate put 15 percent of those aged 15 to 24 outside work, education or training in 2025. These findings highlight the importance of equipping young people with practical skills that will help them find jobs, develop businesses and benefit from AI.”

The actual ‘white paper’ itself gave a deeper insight, asserting: “The Bahamas illustrates how a country can appear well connected while remaining hard to assess. Electricity is universal, 4G covers 95 per cent of the population and an ITU estimate puts Internet use across the whole population at 92.5 per cent….

“Much else remains unknown. The Bahamas has the highest weighted Data Gap Index score in the study. Dominica and Saint Kitts and Nevis each lack evidence for more indicators, at 79, but The Bahamas has the largest weighted gap because of where its missing evidence falls within the framework.

“There is no qualifying score for young people on digital, data, media and AI capability, purposeful use and creation or motivation and confidence. Its education and training provision score of two rests on only three measures, including general teacher training rather than AI teaching.”

Sebas Bastian, minister for innovation and national development, did not respond to Tribune Business messages seeking comment on the Ayre Think Tank’s findings before press time last night.

However, Kendrick Knowles, principal at Knowles Consulting Group and a co-founder of the Bahamas IT Professionals Association, told this newspaper that Mr Bastian’s public statements over the last several months signal that “there’s a sizeable amount being invested in young people with regard to AI training and programmes by the Government”.

He added that The Bahamas, to fully exploit AI and the digital economy, needs to address “low level infrastructure concerns” such as the challenges in securing reliable, consistent power supply from Bahamas Power & Light (BPL) for the likes of data centres and other investments to flourish.

Mr Knowles also warned that AI advances have to be accompanied, and matched, by cyber security upgrades given the threat posed by hackers and other digital criminals seeking to exploit the technological advances.

“We’re just at the beginning. The truth is nobody knows the direction this thing is going to take,” he told Tribune Business of AI. “It changes every six months.”