The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

WINTER 2027 bookings and Thanksgiving room rates are both tracking ahead of prior years by single-digit percentages, the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association’s president disclosed yesterday, adding: “We’re not losing ground.”

Robert Sands, also Baha Mar’s senior vice-president of government and external affairs, told Tribune Business that early indicators for the industry’s peak winter season, which launches in just over two weeks’ time with the Thanksgiving holiday, are extremely encouraging with airlift and seat capacity into New Providence and the wider Bahamas also ahead of prior year comparatives.

However, he acknowledged that this growth may not be felt by all tourism operators, and especially those in some Family Islands, which are likely “close to flat” against year-over-year comparisons primarily due to the loss of Silver Airways’ seat capacity following that carrier’s collapse and the failure as-yet to fully replace this.

Mr Sands also reiterated that it remains critical for The Bahamas to meet or exceed visitor expectations with the in-destination experience they receive - especially given that elevated oil prices remain “the gorilla in the china shop” for tourists, resorts and other local operators given their impact on every aspect of the supply chain and cost of living.

However, he added that signs are positive for the upcoming US Thanksgiving holiday and the winter tourism season’s kick-off. “Hotels are seeing similar occupancies to last year in the mid-80 percent to mid-90 percent range across the board for Thanksgiving in particular,” Mr Sands said.

“They are seeing some growth in rates but minimal growth in occupancies so there is no loss of business; it’s a similar level to last year, which was also a fairly strong Thanksgiving period…. It’s difficult to see meaningful increases when you are already at the higher end of the spectrum for occupancies, and also pushing for an increase in yields, so any improvement in that area is a positive.”

Asked to quantify the rate increase, Mr Sands added: “It’s across the board, so it’s very difficult to give a percentage as it’s not consistent for everyone, but people are seeing growth of anywhere from 2-5 percent. We’re not losing ground; we are continuing to gain ground.

“Coming off Thanksgiving, there are industry reports that festive will be as good or even better than last year. Occupancies are always on the high-end, especially post-Christmas Day and to New Year, which are usually almost at the sold-out stage for a number of properties. For some, it’s what they would have hoped for, and for some others it’s exceeding expectations. All in all, a positive position for the industry at this point.”

The BHTA president told Tribune Business that current trends leave the hotel and tourism industry “slightly above last year and tracking to be even better” for Thanksgiving, Christmas week and the first three months of 2027, the latter of which contains the bulk of peak winter season given that Easter next year falls early at the end of March.

“I think that’s extremely encouraging,” Mr Sands said of present performance indicators. “It gives a little bit of a confidence for improvement, certainly for the first quarter of 2027. First quarter bookings are very encouraging. To put it in perspective, we are seeing that advance bookings are ahead of pace compared to last year. We’re taking it month by month and quarter by quarter, but first quarter advance bookings are a positive indicator.”

Responding when asked how much the winter booking pace is ahead of 2026 first quarter comparisons, he added: “It’s going to vary from property to property. It’s a small percentage, but anywhere from 2 percent to 7.5 percent.” The BHTA said this trend is also being experienced outside Nassau/Paradise Island by “some of the major Family Islands - not all of them.

“Some of the Family Islands are fairly static,” Mr Sands said. “That has a direct relationship to airlift. I think it is fair to say that the industry is gaining positively, certainly New Providence is up, but I think you are going to find the Family Islands are close to flat, principally due to airlift.” New Providence resorts have been able to raise rates, prices and yields at least partially due to lower-than-normal available room inventories.

Mr Sands also acknowledged that the boost from an increase in Canadian visitors, aided by a marked increase in flights and airlift from that nation, has also started to taper off. “While it started off very high, it has levelled out but it is still a positive contributor to business,” he added.

For 2026 year-to-date, the BHTA president disclosed that airlift into Nassau/Paradise Island is up by between 7-8 percent compared to the same period in 2025, adding that this improvement exceeds the 2-3 percent rate that would normally be considered as high by the industry.

“In terms of airlift, we are seeing the number of flights are up and seat capacity is up for the first quarter of the year in 2027,” Mr Sands told Tribune Business. “That, again, is a very positive sign. I would say we are looking at seat capacity up by possibly around 3-4 percent for New Providence and Paradise Island in particular, which is the majority of air seats.”

The Bahamas has always been a high-cost destination focused mainly on targeting affluent travellers, and the BHTA president said the further hikes driven largely by the global oil price spike caused by the Middle East conflict mean the tourism industry has to remain laser-focused on delivering a guest experience that matches the price tag.

“I think the country will have to continue to look at value for money and also ensuring top-end service levels are always maintained,” Mr Sands told this newspaper, “and certainly the cost of air travel to the destination and always looking to work on additional airline routes to The Bahamas. These are always very positive issues.

“I think the gorilla in the china shop remains the price of oil and the impact that will have on costs generally. It is an issue we have all to be concerned about. That and perhaps the evolving impact of US tariffs in terms of how it impacts costs. Those are very important things for us to keep an eye on, and hope there is a turnaround in the very near future.”