The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE CHAMBER of Commerce’s chairman says “the work will never be done” after the Labour Force Survey for the 2026 first quarter revealed that almost one in five Bahamians are either under or unemployed.

Don Williams, also the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation’s (BCCEC) acting chief executive, told Tribune Business that tackling the jobless rate and under-employment are both “country-wide issues and concerns” that the Government and private sector are working “diligently to combat” after it was disclosed that 49,325 Bahamians fall into these categories.

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI) report, covering the first three months of 2026 to end-March, contained a mix of positive and negative indicators as the unemployment rate fell quarter-over-quarter to 8.1 percent compared to 8.7 percent for the 2025 fourth quarter.

The improvement, which slashed the number of jobless Bahamians by 5.7 percent or 1,225 from 21,465 to 20,240, was driven by the seasonal Bahamian economic activity peak coinciding with the winter tourism season.

Hotel and restaurant industry employment rose by 2,020 persons to 43,765 during the 2026 first quarter from 41,745 in the year-end 2025 period, the BNSI report confirming that The Bahamas’ largest industry led the way in job creation. It also generated the largest increase in female employment during the 2026 first quarter at 2,750 persons, seemingly implying there was a minor decrease in the hotel and restaurant industry’s male workers.

The 2026 first quarter unemployment rate also marks a major year-over-year reduction from the double-digit 10.8 percent hit in the year-before period, having come down 2.7 percentage points. Growth in total employment, of 2,760 persons, also outpaced the 1,535-strong expansion of the total labour force during the 2026 first quarter to signal the economy is growing - and creating jobs - at a faster rate than persons coming into the workforce.

However, the BNSI report emphasised that The Bahamas has a bigger problem with under-employment than joblessness. More than 29,000 Bahamians, all working, were said to be in jobs that fail to offer their desired level of wages or working hours, or are not properly using their level of skills and expertise. And their number was said to have increased by almost 3,000, representing a double-digit percentage rise, compared to the 2025 fourth quarter.

“During the first quarter of 2026, there were 29,085 under-employed persons, an increase of 2,890 (11 percent) compared with the fourth quarter of 2025,” the BNSI report said.

“Underemployed persons are employed individuals whose work does not meet their desired level of compensation, working hours, or use of skills and experience, and who are seeking or available for additional work during the reference period.” It is unclear whether this also signals further growth in insecure part-time or casual work, which is often paid at minimum wage rates, in the Bahamian economy.

When the 29,085 under-employed are added to the 20,240 Bahamians who are unemployed, meaning they are actively looking for work but unable to find it, this means 49,325 persons - some 19.8 percent, or almost one-in-five - of a 249,025-strong labour force are either jobless or not being sufficiently employed.

“The number of unemployed persons was 20,240, a decrease of 5.7 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. The decline was largely driven by the prime working-age group (25–54 years), in which unemployment fell by 760 persons to 10,450,” the Labour Force Survey for the 2026 first quarter.

“The overall unemployment rate declined to 8.1 percent from 8.7 percent in the previous quarter. Rates declined for both sexes. The male unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent from 8.3 percent, while the female rate fell to 8.8 percent from 9 percent.”

Still, Mr Williams said the fact that job creation is outpacing the number of new workforce entrants “gives confidence in the economy and to those looking to invest”.

The Chamber chair, in a messaged reply to Tribune Business questions, added of the drop in the unemployment rate: “We see the rate decrease as a positive. It shows the growth in the economy, of businesses and opportunities.

“While this was at the beginning of the year, we expect there to be a slight increase [in the unemployment rate] we see year-over-year due to seasonal business. We encourage employees to continue to enhance their various skill sets to increase productivity and remain competitive, and for businesses to seize opportunities to grow.”

The BNSI report revealed that more than one-quarter of the Bahamian labour force, some 27 percent or 67,870, have no formal qualifications or even BJC or BGCSE exam passes. This percentage is even higher for men, at 34 percent, meaning that more than one-third have no exam passes or qualifications.

“Educational attainment data showed that 58 percent of the labour force had completed secondary school, 22 percent had completed university and 7 percent had completed another tertiary institution,” the 2026 first quarter Labour Force Survey said. “In terms of qualifications, 22 percent of the labour force held a degree.

“Women continued to outpace men in degrees and professional certifications (29 percent and 15 percent, respectively), while men had a slightly higher proportion of technical or vocational certifications. Overall, 27 percent of the labour force had no qualifications, with a higher proportion among men (34 percent).”

Further positives in the 2026 first quarter Labour Force Survey came from the decline in the youth unemployment rate, which fell from 18.2 percent in the final three months of 2025 to 14.2 percent, and a 505-person drop in the number of discouraged workers to 2,135. Of the latter category, representing persons who have actively given up looking for work, the majority - some 1,390 or 65 percent, nearly two-thirds - said they were either tired of seeking or there were no jobs nearby.

“The first quarter of 2026 recorded 28,850 employed youth aged 15–24 years, an increase of 895 persons (3.2 percent) compared with 27,955 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The youth unemployment rate declined to 14.2 percent from 18.2 percent in the previous quarter,” the BNSI report said.

“The number of discouraged workers declined to 2,135, a decrease of 505 persons (19.2%) compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. Discouraged workers are persons outside the labour force who are available for work but are not actively seeking employment because they believe they are unlikely to find work.”

Turning to where the growth occurred, the BNSI report said: “During the first quarter of 2026, employment in ‘elementary occupations’ rose by 32.5 percent to 36,170 persons, representing approximately one-sixth of total employment. Employment among ‘skilled agricultural workers’ increased by 455 persons to 6,605.

Employment among ‘service workers and shop and market sales workers’ declined by 4.4 percent to 60,855 persons. Employment also fell in the combined group ‘craft and related workers, plant and machine operators and assemblers’, to 39,175 persons.

“Employment in the ‘hotel and restaurant’ industry increased by 2,020 persons to 43,765 in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 41,745 in the fourth quarter of 2025. The second largest increase occurred in ‘mining, quarrying, electricity, gas and water’, where employment rose by 1,365 persons to 5,130.

“The ‘hotel and restaurant’ industry recorded the largest increase in female employment at 2,750 persons. The ‘wholesale and retail’ industry recorded the largest increase in male employment, at 2,145 persons, rising from 14,520 to 16,665.”