The Tribune

By FAY SIMMONS

TRIBUNE Business Reporter

jsimmons@tribunemedia.net

THE DAVIS administration is still investigating what drove a reported 75 per cent year-on-year plunge in Bahamian exports to the US in July, the Bahamas Trade Commission’s executive chairman said yesterday.

Barry Griffin declined to attribute the drop to any single cause or signal specific measures to address it, adding that the Trade Commission is “looking beneath the headline numbers to understand what was driving the change”, while cautioning that July's performance did not tell the full story of The Bahamas’ export business.

He added that the January-to-July 2026 export total to the US was around 2.8 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year, a substantially smaller decline than the reported year-on-year fall for July alone.

"The recent monthly weakness deserves close attention, but a single month does not capture the full export picture," said Mr Griffin.

Data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) put Bahamian exports to the US at $25.5m in July 2026, down $78.3m, or 75.4 per cent, from $104m in July 2025. 

The decline was driven primarily by a $55m fall in the category covering articles imported for repairs and goods exported and returned, plus a $23.4m drop in refined petroleum exports and a $1.92m decline in crustacean exports. Refined petroleum exports alone fell 99.9 per cent year-on-year to almost zero, according to the OEC data.

Mr Griffin’s comments leave the immediate cause of the July decline unresolved, with the Government yet to identify the factors behind the fall or outline a specific policy response.

He added that the Trade Commission is continuing to monitor developments, and is prepared to engage with exporters and relevant government agencies to better understand the pressures facing businesses and explore practical options.

However, Mr Griffin said it will be premature to attribute the decline to any single cause or indicate specific measures at this stage.

The distinction between July's reported performance and the year-to-date figures will be important in determining whether the latest result reflects a concentrated monthly disruption or a broader weakening in export activity.

Mr Griffin said the available figures alone do not establish which explanation applies, and further detail on the products, values and underlying movements behind the decline is needed to establish what drove the change.

For exporters, the immediate questions include whether the weakness was concentrated in particular products or shipments, whether it continued into subsequent months and what steps, if any, might help address the pressures identified.

The Commission’s planned engagement with exporters and government agencies could help clarify those questions, although Mr Griffin has not yet outlined a timetable for the review or announced any interventions.

Until more detail emerges, the July figure remains a warning sign but not, on its own, a complete measure of the direction of Bahamian exports to the US market.