The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE GOVERNMENT’S ‘Green Paper’ on reforming governance in Freeport and Grand Bahama says increasing stopover visitors and their spending is critical to the island’s tourism prospects after air arrivals rose by 3 percent for the first five months of 2026.

The document, released as part of the Government’s consultation on its proposed reform package, disclosed that Grand Bahama’s stopover visitors - land-based vacationers who typically spend 28 times’ more than their cruise counterparts and stay in the destination much longer - were last year 83 percent below the annual peak set three decades ago in 1995.

Likely boosted by the July 2025 opening of Carnival’s $600m Celebration Key destination, the ‘Green Paper’ said of Grand Bahama’s tourism performance: “Foreign entry counts rose from 570,513 in 2024 to 1,090,677 in 2025, an increase of 91.2 percent.

“Stopover visitors fell by 16.9 percent in 2025 - from 121,636 to 101,077. Entry counts are allocated by first port of entry and stopovers by place of stay, so the two measures cannot be added together.

“Preliminary Ministry of Tourism figures show that foreign air arrivals to Grand Bahama, which exclude cruise passengers, rose by 3 percent in January to May 2026 - from 31,439 to 32,377. The policy question is how to turn more visits into overnight stays that spend money with Bahamian businesses across the island.”

Comparing present performance to historical trends, the ‘Green Paper’ added: “Stopover visitors, the visitors who stay overnight, peaked at 587,250 in 1995. By 2019 the figure had fallen to 107,732, and in 2025 it was 101,077, about 83 percent below the peak. The [island’s] population fell between 2010 and 2022, and output in 2024 remained below its 2021 level.

“Visitor numbers have fallen sharply after major storms and during the pandemic. Stopovers fell by 23 percent in 2005, after Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004; by 36 percent in 2017, after Hurricane Matthew in 2016; by 20 percent in 2019, the year of Hurricane Dorian; and by 80 percent in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

“The Royal Oasis resort closed after Hurricane Frances in 2004, and the Grand Lucayan resort, damaged by Hurricane Matthew in 2016, was bought by the Government in 2018.” The lack of product, shortage of hotel room inventory, and the consequent lack of airlift have all inhibited Grand Bahama’s tourism industry.

Grand Bahama’s economic output and contribution to overall Bahamian gross domestic product (GDP), while some $214m higher than the prior year at $1.808bn in 2024, was still almost $150m below the 2021 figure of $1.955bn generated amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The revised island GDP series places Grand Bahama’s output at $1.808bn in 2024, equivalent to 11.4 percent of national GDP in that statistical release. Nominal output increased by 13.4 percent from 2023 but was 7.5 percent below the 2021 level. The corresponding series records $1.955bn in 2021, $1.585bn in 2022 and $1.594bn in 2023.

“The BNSI (Bahamas National Statistical Institute) published this revised series in August 2025. The figures are at current prices, so part of each change reflects prices rather than activity. The policy question is how to widen the island’s economic base, so that growth is sustained and a single event cannot set back the whole island.”

The ‘Green Paper’ conceded that the data is for Grand Bahama as a whole, and does not break out Freeport’s contribution, which leaves a lack of empirical evidence supporting the Government’s contention that the city’s investment and governance regime has created an economic “imbalance” with the rest of the island.

“The revised 2022 census reports 22,127 dwelling units in Grand Bahama, of which 17,821 were occupied and 4,306 vacant. The vacancy share was approximately 19.5 percent,” the consultation document added. “The census counts as vacant a dwelling that was suitable for occupation but empty on census day; the measure does not cover dereliction or the rental market.

“The policy question is how to bring empty homes back into use and where new housing should be built, so that people can live near work and services. Owner occupation accounted for 64.1 percent of the 17,815 occupied private dwellings, including ownership outright and ownership with a mortgage.

“Bringing a home back into use can require decisions from several bodies, on title, planning, utility connections and roads.” As for jobs, the ‘Green Paper’ said: “The published Grand Bahama unemployment rate was 12.8 percent in January 2025 [in the] first quarter; 9.4 percent in the second quarter and 8.7 percent in both the third and fourth quarter.

“The policy questions are how to sustain the fall and whether unemployment differs between parts of the island, which the published survey does not show. The January 2025 first quarter survey estimated a labour force of 27,310 people, comprising 23,810 employed and 3,500 unemployed.

“In that survey women’s unemployment was 14.1 percent compared with 11.6 percent for men. In the third and fourth quarters of 2024 the rate for women had been slightly below that for men.”