The Tribune

THE US elections are finally here, as we are all numbingly aware, notwithstanding the great distraction of our historic visit this week by King Charles. And as the king travels onward to the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting next week, we are reminded of our kinship with the dozens of our fellow Commonwealth member nations.

Including Canada.

While US President Donald Trump and his beleaguered Republican Party try to figure out how to rationalize or overturn the results from what seems to be an electoral blue tsunami heading straight for them, wouldn’t it be interesting if Canada turned out to play a major part in making sure that tidal wave really washes away much of the advantage that Trump has accumulated or seized during the past two years?

A significant Republican defeat at the polls is likely to happen, according to virtually every public opinion poll. Trump and the Republicans are certainly acting as if they expect it to happen. For the past several weeks, it’s become increasingly clear that the president is unwilling or unable to pivot to acknowledge that higher prices in the US are threatening to take huge chunks out of his base of support.

The polls say that at least 25 percent of those Republican and MAGA voters don’t plan to vote or, even worse, to vote for a Democrat. Many polled GOP supporters say they have never before even considered voting for a Democrat, but will now reluctantly do so.

Pundit and former senator Claire McCaskill said on national TV the other day that she thinks that Trump, realizing that the war in Iran cannot be won quickly and that prices are likely to remain uncomfortably high for most Americans in the weeks or months to come, has come to terms with the likelihood that the GOP will have to cede control of the US House of Representatives in January, and that it’s more than simply conceivable that the Republicans will lose the Senate too.

The president might well be playing defense. Democrats in the House are already incautiously promising to turn their investigative prerogatives on Trump from virtually the moment when they return to power. Many Dems are muttering about a third impeachment; almost all of them are loudly looking forward to revealing Trump’s alleged corruption.

It remains to be seen, however, how keen will be the appetite of the American electorate to witness yet another spectacular commission of inquiry, when there is no chance that it could make their lives more affordable.

While many observers are now reporting that Trump’s corruption has become the top issue for voters, it says here that is unlikely. The key issue is the same as in most national American elections: How will voters answer the question, “Am I better off today than I was a couple of years ago?”

For most Americans, higher gas prices are simply the clear leading edge of strong inflationary trends in the US economy that have unquestionably been exacerbated by the ongoing American war with Iran and related disruptions in the global oil markets.

But Trump’s tariff wars with several foreign countries have also ratcheted up prices, and this is where Canada enters the midterm election picture. On Sunday, Trump became the first sitting president to ever visit Port Huron, Michigan, a town north of Detroit across the St Clair River from Ontario.

Port Huron’s district has often voted overwhelmingly for Republicans, so Trump’s visit was consistent with his push to rally his most loyal supporters ahead of Tuesday’s elections. But this choice also highlighted a major political liability for Trump. That liability is the economic fallout from his trade war with Canada.

Throughout his second term as president, Trump has scuffled with Canada. It was widely reported that strained personal relations with former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau may have been a key element in the president’s apparent distaste for Canada. And Trudeau’s successor, banker Mark Carney, was chosen by Canadian voters at least partly because he pledged to stand up to Trump’s bullying tactics. He has lived up to that promise.

Anyhow, for whatever reasons, Trump has not spoken nor acted positively toward Canada. Intermittent impositions of tariffs on Canadian goods have been his primary cudgel. Furthermore, Trump has often referred to Canada disparagingly as the ‘51st US state.’

Now, Trump’s recent tariffs of up to 50 percent on some Canadian goods are becoming a major campaign issue in border states and could cost the Republicans control of the Senate.

At a time when voters say they are focused on the cost of living, tariffs are a visible step that obviously drives prices higher. And the trade war with Canada has hurt the residents of border states especially hard. Three of those border states most affected feature contentious Senate elections next week. They are Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan.

In Maine, Trump’s tariffs are perhaps the major reason the Democratic challenger to 30-year incumbent GOP senator Susan Collins is still afloat in a state where Collins has long defied Democratic efforts to push her out of office.

In New Hampshire, Democratic congressman Chris Pappas seems headed for victory over former GOP senator John Sununu as they contend to fill a vacant seat. Again, the sour relationship Trump has maintained with Canada is a factor in what could be a pivotal element in control of the Senate next year.

Michigan, though, is the key state in the Canada equation. In August, a group that supports conservative fiscal policies like lowering taxes released a report saying that tariffs have cost Michigan households an additional $5,619 compared with what they were paying in 2024. That was the largest impact felt by any state, the report concluded.

Polling has consistently shown that voters are paying attention to the tariff issue, and their adverse reaction has considerably boosted the electoral chances of Democrat Dr Abdul Al-Sayed in his close contest with former GOP congressman Mike Rogers.

Rogers appreciates his predicament, and has tried to show independence from Trump’s unpopular tariffs. “Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy,” he says in a widely aired campaign advertisement. We need to end this tariff war — now.”

Last Friday, perhaps in response, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on some Canadian products in an apparent bid to help Collins, who had reportedly requested exemptions for products including blueberries and apples. The partial rollback could also benefit Rogers and Sununu.

“We’re getting close to a deal,” Trump said in Michigan. “A deal could happen that is going to be good for everybody, especially the United States.” Perhaps that is true. Maybe not.

Sixty-seven percent of Michigan voters oppose the tariffs on Canadian goods, according to a New York Times/Siena poll taken in September. Even worse for Republicans, the poll found that roughly one-third of Trump’s own 2024 voters in Michigan opposed the tariffs.

Part of the political problem for Trump is simply that most Americans hold positive perceptions of their northern neighbor, especially in key battleground states along the border where people commonly work, worship, and shop alongside Canadians.

“Michiganders view Canadians far more favorably than they view Donald Trump,” said a leading local public opinion sampler. “The only place I’m seeing a modicum of support on tariffs is with the MAGA base, and even there you start to see them peel off.”

Michigan’s core auto industry is deeply integrated with Canada’s, built up over decades of advantageous trade conditions that encouraged cross-border cooperation. But Trump’s tariffs on raw materials, parts and equipment have driven up costs for Michigan manufacturers, which include Detroit’s Big Three automakers -- General Motors, Ford and Chrysler -- as well as hundreds of auto parts suppliers. Those costs have been passed along to consumers as automobile prices rise.

“There’s no question it has impacted the cost of producing a vehicle and that it has made its way to the showroom,” one pollster said. “You’ve got to look at what the consumer is dealing with, from ground beef to the fuel pump to the average transaction price of a vehicle. The pressure is real, and people talk about it.”

Trump would do well to recall that Obama’s aggressive steps to bail out the American auto industry in 2011 were a major factor in his reelection success the following year.