The Tribune

Bahamian inflation eased slightly from its three-year high as the Middle East conflict’s impact on oil, energy and fuel costs produced 26.7 percent and 46.3 percent year-over-year hikes in gasoline and diesel prices, respectively, in June 2026.

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI), unveiling its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for that month, disclosed that the annual or year-over-year inflation rate moderated slightly to 4.3 percent compared to 4.5 percent for May 2026.

The latter figure represented the greatest increase in Bahamian goods and services prices for more than three-and-a-half years - signalling that cost of living pressures have returned for many families as a result of the Iran war and the disruption caused by oil market spikes and volatility. The last time Bahamian inflation reached 4.5 percent was in late 2022 as the world economy continued its post-COVID re-opening.

The BNSI report, referring to the trailing 12-month inflation rate as measured by the CPI, said: “On a year-over-year basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2026 increased by 4.3 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

“The primary categories contributing to the year-over-year increase were restaurant and hotels at 15.4 percent, transport at 14.1 percent, and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance at 5.9 percent. In contrast, the category of alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics decreased by 3.1 percent.”

Alongside shipping (freight) and transportation costs, the Middle East conflict’s fall-out was most keenly felt by Bahamian motorists at the fuel pump with average per gallon gasoline and diesel prices hitting $6.97 and $7.11, respectively, for June. “On an annual basis, both petroleum and diesel prices increased. Diesel recorded the larger increase at 46.3 percent, while petroleum prices rose by 26.7 percent over the same period,” the BNSI report said.

“The petroleum and diesel index showed month-over–month increases in June 2026, with petroleum prices rising by 2.05 percent and diesel prices decreasing by -0.6 percent relative to May 2026.” Inflation in The Bahamas, which measures the pace at which prices paid by consumers increases, has risen steadily since September 2024 with the annual rate never dropping below 2 percent since that time.

After hovering below the 3 percent mark through February 2026, Bahamian inflation hit 3.1 percent in March - the month after Middle East hostilities broke out - before surging to 3.8 percent in April 2026 and then peaking at 4.5 percent in May.

As for the monthly inflation rate, the BNSI report said: “The monthly inflation rate in The Bahamas decreased by 0.1 percent in June 2026 compared to May 2026, reflecting changes in the average prices of goods and services purchased by consumers during the period. This follows an increase of 0.6 percent recorded between April and May 2026.

“On a month-to-month basis - June 2026 compared to May 2026 - the largest decreases included food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.3 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (0.4 percent), clothing (0.4 percent), along with housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (0.3 percent). In contrast, the largest increase was recorded in the health (2.2 percent) category. All other major groups remained unchanged.”