The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

FAMILY Island resorts yesterday said they are confronting November bookings up to 10 percentage points down on last year’s pace as “uneasy” travellers wait “to see where the dust settles” on multiple global uncertainties.

Ben Simmons, proprietor of the Little Island Hotels group, which includes the Ocean View and The Other Side properties on Harbour Island, as well as The Farm on mainland Eleuthera, told Tribune Business that average November occupancies across his resort portfolio currently stand at 35 percent compared to 45 percent at the same point last year.

Asserting that he has “got to be optimistic” this gap will close between now and November, which features the US Thanksgiving holiday that traditionally marks the start of the winter tourism season, the resort entrepreneur blamed the year-over-year drop on cost of living pressures, the upcoming US mid-term elections and geopolitical uncertainties.

However, Mr Simmons asserted that the outlook for the Christmas and New Year period is strong with December “tracking within 6 percentage points” of the prior year’s occupancy levels. And he voiced confidence that the Little Island Hotels group will also narrow the present 30 percentage point gap between current bookings and typical average occupancies of 75 percent for January.

“November as of right now, across all three properties, we are definitely behind by about 10 percentage points on occupancy, which isn’t great,” he said. “But we’ve got to be optimistic we will make that up. It’s definitely concerning, but it’s a little bit early to be fair.

“Christmas is looking good. December is tracking within six percentage points across the three properties, which this far out is great. January is still pretty far off. It’s 30 percentage points off. We expect that gap to close the closer we get.”

Comparing the booking pace for November 2026 and January 2027 with that for the same months in the prior years, benchmarked against this current point in the year, Mr Simmons said: “For January 2026, as of September 2025, we were pretty much the same. We were about 44 percent then, and we’re about 30 percentage points off now. We’re usually at 75 percent occupancy for January. We’re tracking as we should.

“As of last year, we were at 45 percent at this point for November. Our current bookings [for November 2026], we are currently tracking at 35 percent occupancy. We ended up closing last year at 50 percent occupancy for the month. In comparison to where we were last year, 45 percent, we are 10 percentage points off.”

Mr Simmons attributed the November softness to a combination of the US mid-term elections, due to be held that month, plus the geopolitical uncertainty caused by Middle East turbulence and conflict and its impact on global oil and fuel prices, which have filtered down supply chains to drive inflation and cost of living concerns among consumers.

“It’s the state of oil, the state of diesel, the state of the world. There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” he told Tribune Business. “Last year, we probably had one or two more weddings. A wedding can swing 10 percentage points for us in a given month because of the buy-out of the three properties.

“Generally, there’s a sense of uneasiness in the world. So many things are moving and we just don’t know where things will be next year. Everyone is taking a moment to see where the dust settles. But we seem to be on par and tracking right where we are for January.”

Jeff Birch, owner of the Small Hope Bay Lodge in Andros, and a past president of the Bahamas Out Island Promotion Board, told Tribune Business that his property’s costs have increased by 25-30 percent over the past two years with business levels for November and early winter 2026-2027 relatively flat compared to 2025.

Emphasising that he has focused on achieving greater efficiencies and improved guest services, rather than raising his own prices to compensate for higher expenses, Mr Birch said: “It’s looking about the same as last year. It means that it’s not full occupancy but it’s OK. We’ll have to wait until the US mid-term elections are over. It’s about the same as last year, but last year was down a little bit” compared to 2024.

Mr Birch, echoing Mr Simmons, said the Family Island travel market is being impacted by “uncertainty and rising prices”. He added: “I think that costs have probably gone up 25-30 percent over the last couple of years, which has kind of eroded everything, of course, and you cannot keep raising prices.

“So it’s a little bit of an uncertain time right now… I’m just trying to be a bit more efficient and deliver good service. I don’t know about other people, but I think The Bahamas is 85 percent dependent on US tourism. Until that levels off it’s kind of uncertain.”

Mr Birch also warned that it would be “a bit of a logistical nightmare” for himself and Small Hope Bay Lodge if no solution for the Fresh Creek bridge is in place for the start of the winter tourism season because guests will be unable to travel between the resort and airport by road. This, he added, would negatively impact the customer experience and first and last impressions of both The Bahamas and Andros.

The Government has now announced it will spend about $400,000 repairing the condemned Fresh Creek Bridge after abandoning plans for a temporary crossing that contractors estimated would cost more than $10m. Repairs are expected to begin on October 1 and take four to six weeks.

Meanwhile, Molly McIntosh, the top management executive at Abaco’s Bluff House Beach Resort and Marina, said her property - in common with Mr Simmons’ group - is also eyeing a November that is slightly down on 2025 comparisons based on forward bookings.

However, she added that reservations for Christmas and New Year are “rolling in” and January will “tell the tale” of how strong 2027 will be overall as this is typically the property’s busiest month for bookings.

“I’m a little bit down with forward bookings for November,” Ms McIntosh told Tribune Business. “Christmas and New Year are looking very good as they normally do for that time with the festive holiday. Thanksgiving is not a busy time for us, but November bookings are not looking as good as I’d like them to look.

“The Christmas holiday and New Year looks good and, next year, they are rolling in, but we are not anywhere near the level for next year. They are rolling in for next year, so it is looking good.”

Ms McIntosh said the Bluff House’s sale to new ownership last year, and its ongoing renovations and upgrades with the property having closed from September 1 until October 30, were attracting significant attention in the market. The kitchen has been redone and a new chef appointed.

“It’s not looking great. I’m not jumping up and down like ‘yes’,” she added of November. “Christmas is looking good, and forward bookings are rolling in, but I cannot give you a definitive answer [on 2027’s outlook] yet. We’re not full anywhere. We get a lot of bookings in January. January is a huge month, and that will tell the tale. If bookings start rolling in in January like they normally do, we will have a good year.”

Ms McIntosh said the Bluff House will re-open on October 30 by accommodating a private pilot group followed by a Halloween party. “Thanksgiving is not a huge time for our bookings anyway. In the last five to six years we’ve not been anywhere near full for Thanksgiving. I’d like to do some promotions to get that business there,” she added.